El Niño Intensity in East Java Decreases, 2026 Dry Season Predicted to Be More Manageable

The government faces policy dilemmas with no truly comfortable options. The El Niño phenomenon, which triggered dry spells in East Java, has shown a downward trend since its peak in 2023. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) states that the strength of El Niño in 2026 remains weak based on ENSO parameters. “This year continues to level off from 2023, 2024, 2025, and then in 2026 the value is still 0, not yet 1, so the El Niño is weak from the ENSO parameter,” said Head of BMKG Juanda, Taufiq Hermawan, in Surabaya on Wednesday (8/4). The BMKG Juanda explains that the drought level is calculated through the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) parameter, which measures sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. In 2026, the ENSO value is recorded at 0 and has not yet reached level 1. Based on this analysis, the El Niño phenomenon has several levels, from weak, moderate, to strong. In East Java, the drought intensity due to this phenomenon is said to be gradually decreasing. The strong drought-level El Niño previously hit East Java in 2023, triggering forest and land fires (karhutla) in several areas and causing clean water difficulties for communities. “The driest for the East Java region, as I have stated, occurred in 2023. At that time, we worked together in Kaliandra to carry out extinguishing via helicopter,” he said. Taufiq stated that after the strong El Niño period in 2023, BMKG parameters show that drought conditions are no longer at a high level and tend to be greener on the monitoring map, known as wet dry season. “In 2024, it has started to vary and not as red as 2023. In 2025, it is even more level, the map is getting greener,” he added. He further noted that the ENSO value in 2026, still below 1, is hoped not to develop into a moderate El Niño. “The hope is it doesn’t reach moderate. El Niño remains in the weak category only,” he said. Nevertheless, Taufiq emphasised that drought season mitigation steps by the East Java Provincial Government still need to be carried out to maintain food security and prevent forest and land fires. “Anticipation from the East Java Provincial Government has been carried out massively to anticipate that,” he explained. BMKG predicts that the ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena will be in a neutral condition until mid-2026. However, El Niño is estimated to have the potential to strengthen to weak to moderate categories towards the end of the year with a probability of around 50-60 percent. Therefore, BMKG assesses that drought potential can still occur in several East Java regions throughout this year. “This condition causes the 2026 dry season in East Java to have the potential to be drier,” he said.