El Niño Hits Indonesia, UGM Expert Warns of Imminent Dangers

The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon emerging in 2026 is raising concerns over the renewed threat of forest and land fires (karhutla) in Indonesia. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) estimates that this year’s dry season will be drier and longer than normal conditions. By the end of March 2026, approximately 7% of Indonesia’s Seasonal Zones (ZOM) have entered the dry season, with the number expected to increase steadily in the coming months. Fiqri Ardiansyah, a lecturer at UGM’s Faculty of Forestry, stated that El Niño has a strong correlation with heightened karhutla risks due to drier vegetation and forest conditions. However, he emphasised that the main trigger for fires still stems from human activities, particularly uncontrolled use of fire in land clearing. “So, the connection is not just with land management, but with the careless use of fire in managing land,” Fiqri said in a statement, quoted from UGM’s official website on Friday (8/5/2026). He highlighted the widespread practice of slash-and-burn land clearing, which communities favour for its speed and low cost. The problem is that such practices often lack safety measures, such as creating firebreaks to prevent flames from spreading to other areas. “What communities generally overlook is not making firebreaks or isolating fuel materials in the area, so the fire spreads everywhere,” Fiqri explained. According to Fiqri, karhutla issues are not solely tied to extreme weather but also to weak forest governance and limited synergy between forest area managers, companies, and surrounding communities. He warned that without significant improvements in governance, Indonesia could face major fires again like those in 2015. The risks are even higher in peatland areas, where fires can burn deep into the soil layers and are difficult to extinguish. “The worst scenario is a repeat of the 2015 fires, with high deforestation rates. This would lead to prolonged haze, impacting social activities, economic operations, aviation, and public health,” he said. On the other hand, Fiqri noted that the government is beginning to bolster mitigation efforts through an early warning system based on BMKG predictions. However, he stressed that early warnings must be followed by concrete on-the-ground actions, including restrictions on fire use for land clearing and promotion of non-burning methods. Additionally, routine patrols, monitoring of peatland conditions, and education for communities around forest areas are seen as essential to reduce karhutla risks during the dry period caused by El Niño. “Amid the rising potential of El Niño, strengthening collaborative forest governance and prevention measures is the key to minimising karhutla risks in Indonesia,” he concluded.