El Niño Forecast to Persist Longer, Next Year Could Be 'Hell'

A number of researchers have revealed that El Niño will continue to strengthen, potentially becoming the largest in 150 years. This will make temperatures even hotter in 2027.

Climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, Zeke Hausfather, said the peak of this El Niño will greatly surpass previous records. These findings come from a series of climate models.

“It is not impossible that this event, together with climate change, could increase the average global temperature in 2027 to 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,” he explained, as quoted by Nature on Wednesday (29/7/2026).

If that happens, it means the temperature increase has exceeded the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Since June, an increase in Pacific sea surface temperatures and a more rapid strengthening of wind patterns have been detected. Both are hallmarks of El Niño.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also predicted that El Niño will continue until April 2027. The agency also confirmed that the strongest El Niño in history will soon be felt.

“Currently, we are seeing all the markers of a very strong atmosphere-ocean coupling across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, giving us confidence that we will see a very strong El Niño that ranks among the strongest in the historical record,” said NOAA meteorologist Michelle L’Heureux.

The El Niño phenomenon impacts the economy by causing heatwaves, droughts, floods, and forest fires.

Climate researcher at Dartmouth College, Justin Mankin, and his team previously stated that weather changes due to the 1997-1998 El Niño reduced global economic growth by US$5.7 trillion in the following year. Similar estimates are likely for the coming years.

“The current El Niño could cause economic losses of US$10 trillion by 2032,” he said.