El Nino Could Trigger Global Temperature Records
The strengthening El Nino phenomenon has the potential to trigger a significant surge in global temperatures in the coming months. This condition is exacerbated by the simultaneous emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is predicted to increase the risk of extreme heat at the regional level.
Director of the Centre for Policy and Climate Change Research at Bogazici University in Turkiye, Levent Kurnaz, revealed that the world is likely to witness record-breaking temperatures due to the combination of this natural phenomenon with ongoing global warming.
“When the short-term contribution of El Nino is added to a climate system that is already experiencing warming, we are likely to witness record temperatures in the coming months,” said Kurnaz.
El Nino is a recurring climate pattern characterised by warming sea water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, a positive IOD is marked by warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean and cooler waters in the eastern part compared to normal conditions.
Data from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University shows that sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. This figure increased sharply after previously recording an anomaly of 0.98 degrees in the April-May 2026 period and 1.55 degrees in June.
Kurnaz explained that an anomaly above 2 degrees Celsius categorises this phenomenon as a very strong El Nino. Forecasts for the August-October period indicate its intensity could be equivalent to the major events that occurred in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) also estimates that El Nino will be the dominant factor influencing the global climate until October, impacting above-normal temperature rises and changes in global rainfall patterns.
The combination of El Nino and a positive IOD creates overlapping impacts that increase the risk of disasters in various regions. Kurnaz highlighted several specific impacts:
“The fact that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is occurring in the same period creates conditions where regional risks can be felt far greater than in previous periods,” Kurnaz stressed.
He added that climate change remains the fundamental factor providing a higher temperature starting point, making the heat impacts brought by El Nino far more extreme for the earth’s population.