El Niño at the Doorstep: A Time Bomb for Palm Oil and Industrial Timber Plantation Businesses
Secondly, there is confusion between private and public property losses. Article 90 paragraph (1) of Law 32/2009 strictly limits government lawsuits to damage to public goods such as air and river water. Damage to citizens’ property—scorched rice fields, burnt plantations—is not the domain of government lawsuits. Yet in practice, all losses are aggregated into one, creating an inflated figure.
Thirdly, the theory and case examples in Appendix II of Minister of Environment Regulation 7/2014 contradict each other. The theory section teaches the correct principles, but the case example section practices the opposite.
Systemic Impact on Green Investment
The government is aggressively promoting a green economy, carbon trading, and sustainable investment. The Net Zero Emission 2060 target requires active participation from the private sector. However, how will investors be willing to enter if the existing legal instruments become an existential threat to business?
When environmental damage fines can reach trillions of rupiah due to flawed calculation methods, what occurs is not law enforcement—but the systematic killing of businesses. Companies go bankrupt, thousands of workers are laid off, foreign exchange is lost, and ironically: the environment that was supposed to be restored with compensation funds is instead neglected due to protracted disputes in court.
An Early Warning That Must Be Heeded
El Niño is no longer a possibility; it is a certainty heading our way. Palm oil and HTI businesses must prepare themselves—not only operationally by strengthening fire prevention, but also legally by understanding the risks of lawsuits that lie in wait.
However, this warning is not only for business actors. It is a call for the government to immediately revise Minister of Environment Regulation 7/2014, to strictly separate private and public losses, stop double-counting, and standardise the competence of environmental valuation experts. Without this reform, we will witness a double tragedy: an environment that remains damaged, and businesses that should be partners in green development instead destroyed by the very legal instruments meant to protect them.