El Niño 2026 Triggers Drought Threat, Government Prepares Water and Food Mitigation

The Ministry of Public Works is preparing integrated mitigation measures to anticipate the potential for a prolonged dry season in 2026, which is expected to arrive earlier and last longer than normal conditions. Acting Director General of Water Resources Adenan Rasyid emphasised that this situation needs to be anticipated early because it has the potential to impact water, food, and environmental resilience.

“The 2026 dry season is expected to arrive earlier, last longer, and have a level of dryness above normal conditions. This situation is a serious threat to water, food, and environmental resilience, so planned, measured, and integrated mitigation measures are needed,” he said during the Coordination Meeting on Strategies for Mitigating and Addressing the Impacts of the Prolonged Dry Season in 2026 in Jakarta on Monday (13/4/2026).

Based on a study by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the 2026 dry season will coincide with the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to start in July with weak to moderate intensity and a 50–80 percent probability. This condition makes this year’s dry season potentially drier than the climatological average in Indonesia.

Rasyid said the drought impacts are expected to be felt in various sectors, including reduced river discharge, decreased reservoir volumes, and groundwater reserves.

“In the agricultural sector, this condition has the potential to disrupt planting patterns. Meanwhile, in environmental aspects, the risk of forest and land fires is also likely to increase, especially in peat areas,” said Rasyid.