Eid al-Fitr 2026: Will it fall on 20 or 21 March? Here are the predictions
Eid al-Fitr 2026 is approaching rapidly. To date, the government has not established a definitive date for Eid al-Fitr 2026.
Unlike the government, Muhammadiyah announced the date of Eid al-Fitr 2026 earlier. Based on the Global Unified Islamic Calendar (KHGT) 1447 H and information from Muhammadiyah’s Central Leadership, Eid al-Fitr 1447 H/2026 M according to Muhammadiyah falls on 20 March 2026.
This raises the question: will Eid al-Fitr 2026 fall on 20 or 21 March? Here is the explanation.
Government Prediction for Eid al-Fitr 2026
The government, through the Joint Decree of Three Ministers on National Holidays and Joint Leave 2026, stated that the Eid al-Fitr holiday in 2026 falls on 21 March 2026. However, an isbat session is still required to determine when Eid al-Fitr 2026 or 1 Shawwal 1447 H occurs.
According to the Ministry of Religious Affairs website, the isbat session to determine Eid al-Fitr 2026 will be held on:
Date: Thursday, 19 March 2026
Time: Starting at 16:00 WIB (Western Indonesian Time)
Location: H.M. Rasjidi Auditorium, Ministry of Religious Affairs Office, Jakarta
Eid al-Fitr 2026 Prediction from BRIN: 21 March
Thomas Djamaluddin, a researcher at the Centre for Space Research of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), predicts that Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijriah will potentially fall on 21 March 2026. This prediction is based on astronomical calculations regarding the position of the crescent moon (hilal).
Thomas explained that astronomically, at the time of sunset on Thursday (19 March) in Southeast Asia, the crescent moon position does not yet meet the new MABIMS criteria (Ministers of Religious Affairs of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore). This is shown on the calculation map, which still crosses the Central Asia region.
“Astronomically, at sunset on 19 March 2026 in Southeast Asia, the crescent moon does not yet meet the new MABIMS criteria, as shown by the yellow curve crossing Central Asia,” Thomas told reporters on Tuesday (10 March 2026).
It should be noted that the MABIMS criteria since 2021/2022 establish the beginning of the Islamic month if the crescent moon height is at least 3 degrees and elongation is 6.4 degrees.
With such conditions, according to him, 1 Shawwal 1447 H is estimated to fall on 21 March 2026. However, he stated that the decision on the date of Eid al-Fitr must still await the decision of the isbat session.
“Therefore, 1 Shawwal 1447 Hijriah falls on 21 March 2026, awaiting the isbat session decision,” he added.
However, Thomas explained that there is a possibility of a different outcome if using other criteria. Based on the Global Unified Islamic Calendar (KHGT) criteria, the moon’s position already meets the requirements.
“Whereas according to the KHGT criteria (purple curve), the moon’s position has met the criteria and conjunction (ijtima’) occurred before dawn in New Zealand (there is a small note on this map),” he said.
“Therefore, according to KHGT criteria, 1 Shawwal 1447 Hijriah falls on 20 March 2026,” he added.
Prediction of the Crescent Moon for 1 Shawwal 1447 H from the Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency
The position of the crescent moon can be seen in the Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) document ‘Crescent Moon Forecast Information at Sunset on 19 March 2026 Determining the Beginning of Shawwal Month 1447 H’. BMKG states that 19 March 2026 is the time of conjunction.
“Geocentric conjunction or conjunction or ijtima’ is an event when the ecliptic longitude of the moon equals the ecliptic longitude of the sun, with the observer assumed to be at the centre of the Earth. This event will occur again on Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 01:23:23 UT or Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 08:23:23 WIB (Western Indonesian Time) or Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 09:23:23 WITA (Central Indonesian Time) or Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 10:23:23 WIT (Eastern Indonesian Time),” according to BMKG.
BMKG states that the synodic period of the moon from the previous conjunction to the coming conjunction is 19 days, 13 hours and 22 minutes. BMKG states that conjunction occurs before sunset on 19 March throughout Indonesia.
“Astronomically, the implementation of crescent moon sighting (rukyat) to determine the beginning of Shawwal month 1447 H for those applying rukyat in its determination is after sunset on 19 March 2026,” BMKG states.
The following is the crescent moon position forecast on 19 March 2026 from BMKG:
Crescent Moon Height
Crescent moon height is the magnitude of the angle expressed from the position of the moon’s projection on the observed horizon to the position of the centre of the moon’s disc. The crescent moon height in Indonesia at sunset on 19 March 2026 ranges between 0.91 degrees in Merauke, Papua, to 3.13 degrees in Sabang, Aceh.
Elongation
Elongation is the angular distance between the centre of the moon’s disc and the centre of the sun’s disc as observed by an observer on the Earth’s surface. Geocentric elongation in Indonesia at sunset on 19 March 2026 ranges between 4.54 degrees in Waris, Papua, to 6.1 degrees in Banda Aceh, Aceh.
Moon Age
Moon age is the difference in time between sunset and the time conjunction occurs. Moon age in Indonesia at sunset on 19 March 2026 ranges between 7.41 hours in Waris, Papua, to 10.44 hours in Banda Aceh, Aceh.
Additionally, BMKG also mentions there is potential for other astronomical objects during moon observations on 19 March. BMKG states that from sunset until the moon sets, Saturn is present at an angular distance of less than 10 degrees from the moon.