Economy Grows 5.47%, So Why Does Optimism Vary?

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded year-on-year economic growth of 5.47 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, up from 5.29 per cent in the previous quarter. Cumulative growth since January reached 5.45 per cent.

However, not everyone is experiencing the good news in the same way. Several surveys published over the past two months reveal mixed sentiment, depending on whom they ask.

Households remain broadly optimistic. Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Consumer Survey put the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 118.1 in September 2026, above the 100 threshold. Even so, the figure had fallen from 127.0 in January. The steepest drop was among households spending Rp1 million to Rp2 million a month. The job availability index for this group plunged to 85.1.

Savings are also shrinking. The share of income set aside fell from 18.2 per cent in April to 15.4 per cent in September. By contrast, the share allocated to spending rose to 74.9 per cent, its highest level this year.

In shops, consumer spending is not keeping pace with the BPS figures. BI’s Retail Sales Survey found that real sales rose by just 1.3 per cent in August 2026, following three consecutive monthly declines from April to June. Meanwhile, BPS recorded household consumption growth of 5.04 per cent.

Businesses are somewhere in between. BI’s Business Activity Survey (SKDU) found that activity continued to expand in the third quarter, with a weighted net balance (SBT) of 11.46 per cent. This was down from 12.97 per cent in the second quarter and below the same periods in 2023 (15.65 per cent) and 2024 (14.40 per cent). For the fourth quarter, businesses forecast that the SBT would fall further, to 10.77 per cent.

The SBT is BI’s way of summarising responses from thousands of businesses. BI calculates the percentage of respondents reporting an increase in activity and subtracts the percentage reporting a decline. Responses of “unchanged” are not counted. The result is then multiplied by the weighting assigned to each sector. An SBT of 11.46 per cent therefore does not mean turnover rose by 11.46 per cent. It indicates that more businesses reported improving conditions than worsening ones. The lower the figure, the narrower the gap between the two groups.

For businesses, the positive but declining figure is reflected in a more cautious approach. The SBT for employment stood at just 0.07 per cent, meaning the number of businesses adding staff was almost equal to the number reducing their workforce. In manufacturing, the figure was even negative, at -0.36 per cent, partly because employees who retired were not replaced. Only 6.35 per cent of respondents said credit was easier to obtain, the lowest proportion since 2023. Investment plans for the fourth quarter also weakened to 5.64 per cent, from 9.54 per cent a year earlier. Some retailers have opted to offer promotions and discounts to sustain demand.