Economists Say 6% Growth Target Will Be Difficult to Achieve

JAKARTA — A survey by the Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI), found that economists believe the target of 6% economic growth in 2027 will be difficult to achieve. Experts highlighted the Free Nutritious Meals programme (MBG) and Merah Putih Village Cooperatives (KDMP), which they consider the initiatives most at risk.

“Economists have expressed considerable doubt about the likelihood of achieving the 6% economic growth target assumed in the Draft 2027 State Budget (RAPBN),” LPEM FEB UI wrote in its ‘LPEM Economic Expert Survey – Semester II 2026’, cited on Sunday (25 October 2026).

The survey was conducted online from 21 September to 13 October 2026. Its sample comprised 63 economists from various backgrounds, including academia, research institutes, think tanks, the private sector and multinational organisations and institutions.

“Of the 63 respondents, 37 economists (59%) considered the target the macroeconomic assumption least likely to be achieved, making it the most frequently selected answer by a substantial margin over the other assumptions,” it said.

The rupiah exchange-rate assumption of Rp17,500 to the US dollar ranked second among the 2027 draft budget’s most difficult macroeconomic assumptions to meet, selected by 12 respondents (19%).

Relatively few economists considered the other macroeconomic assumptions the most difficult to achieve. Four respondents (6%) selected the assumption that Indonesia’s crude oil price would be US$75 a barrel, followed by three (5%) who selected inflation of 2.5%, with a margin of plus or minus 1 percentage point. Just one respondent (2%) selected the assumption of a 6.9% yield on 10-year government securities (SUN).

Meanwhile, six respondents (10%) said they were confident that all the macroeconomic assumptions could be achieved. “Overall, these findings show that economists view the 2027 economic growth target as the most challenging component of the government’s macroeconomic projections, while concern about the achievability of the other assumptions is relatively lower,” it said.

In the same survey, economists identified the MBG programme, KDMP and the 8% economic growth target as the government agendas most at risk of failing to meet expectations. This was seen as a major challenge to the effective implementation of government programmes in the period ahead.

“The MBG programme, particularly its ambition to serve as one of the drivers of economic growth, was the agenda most frequently considered at risk of falling short of expectations, selected by 54 of the 63 respondents (86%),” it said.

The KDMP programme was selected by 48 respondents (76%), followed by the government’s 8% economic growth target, selected by 43 respondents (68%).

By contrast, relatively fewer respondents considered investment led by the Daya Anagata Nusantara Investment Management Agency (BPI Danantara) (14 respondents, or 22%), downstream processing and industrialisation (eight, or 13%), and the three-million-homes programme (seven, or 11%) to be among the agendas most at risk of falling short of expectations. Energy self-sufficiency and food self-sufficiency were each selected by just five respondents (8%).