Economists predict July monthly inflation to slow to 0.03 per cent
Jakarta (ANTARA) - Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asimoro predicts that Indonesia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2026 will experience a monthly inflation rate of 0.03 per cent (month-to-month/mtm), slowing down from the previous 0.44 per cent (mtm) recorded in June 2026.
“We predict low domestic inflation in July,” said Andry in Jakarta on Sunday. On an annual basis, inflation is projected to be 3.06 per cent (year-on-year/yoy) in July.
He explained that the decline in volatile food prices and government-administered prices is expected to offset the rise in core inflation in July. The volatile food group is projected to experience deflation of 1.12 per cent (mtm), reversing the 0.14 per cent (mtm) inflation recorded in June 2026. The drop in food prices is primarily influenced by the falling prices of red chillies and shallots following the peak harvest period.
Meanwhile, the government-administered price group is projected to experience inflation of 0.10 per cent (mtm), lower than the 1.41 per cent (mtm) seen in the previous month. This slowdown occurs alongside the normalisation of price pressures following the adjustment of non-subsidised fuel (BBM) prices in June 2026.
On the other hand, core inflation is expected to increase to 0.29 per cent (mtm) from 0.23 per cent (mtm) in June 2026. This increase is mainly driven by seasonal education expenditures at the start of the new academic year. School fee payments are expected to contribute approximately 0.06 percentage points to the overall monthly inflation.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia is scheduled to announce the official inflation data for July 2026 on Monday, 3 August 2026. Simultaneously, BPS will also release several other economic indicators, such as June 2026 export and import data, the July 2026 wholesale price index, the July 2026 farmer exchange rate, June 2026 tourism developments, June 2026 Indonesian transport developments, as well as KSA results regarding the harvest area and production of paddy and maize up to June 2026.