Economists predict Asian monies to be bullish in 2000

Economists predict Asian monies to be bullish in 2000

SINGAPORE (AFP): Most Asian currencies put up a stellar
performance in 1999 and are forecast to appreciate again this
year on stronger regional economic fundamentals and an inflow of
investments, analysts say.

But the direction of the yen, which chalked up a 10 percent
gain against the U.S. dollar last year, seems uncertain with
evidence of Japan's economic recovery remaining patchy.

"We are very bullish on each and every currency in non-Japan
Asia except those in the Indian sub-continent as well as the
Chinese yuan," said Bhanu Baweja, senior economist with financial
markets analysis firm IDEAglobal.com.

Thio Chin Loo, head of Asian currency research at Banque
Paribas, said top Asian currency performers in 2000 would be
those whose economies showed "not only continued economic
improvement but also commitment to ongoing reforms."

Of the world's 10 best performing currencies against the U.S.
dollar in 1999, four -- the Indonesian rupiah, the Japanese yen,
the South Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar -- were Asian, she
said.

This was a far cry from the rankings list in 1997, when half
of the worst performing currencies were Asian. Financial turmoil
erupted in Asia in the middle of that year resulting from a
regional currency meltdown.

Thio said despite the large reversals now in Asian currency
fortunes, most regional units remained undervalued.

She believed the rupiah, the best 1999 Asian currency
performer with 11 percent gains against the greenback, could
repeat that performance in 2000 if Jakarta was able to promote
political and social stability, vital for the return of capital.

For the yen, IDEAglobal.com forecast it would dip to 110
against the dollar at the end of 2000 from its current level of
102.

Banque Paribas, on the other hand, expected the Japanese unit
to strengthen, piercing the psychologically-important 100 level.

At the end of 2000, IDEAglobal.com forecast the Indonesian
rupiah to appreciate to 6,300 against the U.S. dollar from its
1999 close of 7,037.50, the Thai baht to 35.00 from 37.50, the
Philippine peso to 38.50 from 40.25, the Taiwanese dollar to
30.30 from 31.62, the South Korean won to 1,055 from 1,135.50 and
the Singaporean dollar to 1.5700 from 1.6656.

It also said the overvalued Hong Kong dollar could decline to
7.8000 against the greenback from its 1999-end level of 7.7717.