Economists assess China's 2026 economic growth target as realistic
Jakarta (ANTARA) – Several economists have assessed China’s economic growth target for 2026 at around 4.5–5 per cent as a realistic and pragmatic target, whilst also reflecting the government’s efforts to maintain economic stability amid global uncertainty.
The target was announced during the annual “Two Sessions” plenary held in Beijing on Wednesday (4 March). This important political agenda serves as a key forum for the Chinese government to establish the direction of the country’s economic and social policies, including in the first year of implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan.
Shen Danyang, head of the drafting team for China’s Government Work Report and director of the State Council’s Research Office, told Xinhua on Wednesday that the growth target was set taking into consideration domestic economic conditions and the dynamics of the external environment.
According to him, the government is attempting to balance the needs and capabilities of the economy so that the growth target remains ambitious whilst remaining realistic.
China had previously targeted economic growth of around 5 per cent over the past three years. Setting the target in the form of a range is seen as providing policy flexibility in responding to global risks, including geopolitical tensions and rising trade protectionism.
Speaking on the same occasion, Koh King Kee, chairman of the New Asia Strategy Research Center, assessed that the target demonstrates the stability of China’s economic policy whilst providing room for adjustment to global dynamics.
“This pragmatic target reflects the stability and flexibility of China’s policy,” he said.
According to him, the approach also reflects prudence in managing the economy amid global uncertainty.
From Indonesia, Rahma Gafmi, professor of economics at Airlangga University, assessed that the primary significance of the target does not lie solely in the figure itself, but rather in the direction of China’s economic development over the next five years.
She stated that moderate growth provides room for structural reform, economic transformation, and risk management.
Beyond the economic growth target, international attention is also focused on plans to hold the 2026 APEC High-Level Conference in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province.
The 33rd APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting, scheduled for November 2026, is centred on the theme “Building an Asia-Pacific Community for Shared Prosperity” and will focus on openness, innovation, and cooperation.
Economists have assessed that hosting the summit has the potential to strengthen China’s economic openness and increase trade and investment cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.