Economist Warns of Fiscal Illusion: Reliance on Seized Funds Could Erode APBN Credibility
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Economist from the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Yusuf Rendy Manilet has warned the government not to rely on state revenues from seized assets to bolster the budget, as it risks creating an illusion of fiscal space.
According to him, revenues from seized assets are uncertain, non-recurring, and difficult to project, making them unsuitable as a basis for planning the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN).
“If we relate this to fiscal sustainability, this is where caution is needed. Relying on revenues from sources like seized assets to support future deficits is not only unhealthy but can also create an illusion of fiscal space that does not actually exist,” Yusuf told Kompas.com on Monday (13/4/2026).
He assessed that dependence on ad hoc revenue sources could weaken fiscal discipline and reduce the government’s policy credibility in the eyes of the market.
In such conditions, relying on uncertain revenues is not considered an appropriate solution and even poses risks if used as a basis for fiscal planning.
“In the context of the current pressured deficit, relying on sources like this is clearly insufficient and risky if incorporated into overly optimistic planning,” he said.
Instead, the government is encouraged to strengthen fiscal foundations through more sustainable steps, both on the spending and revenue sides.
On the spending side, the government needs to sharpen priorities and programme efficiency, including postponing activities with limited economic impact.
Meanwhile, on the revenue side, more stable policy options are still available, such as tax extensification, the implementation of windfall taxes on certain sectors, and adjustments to tax rates for high-income groups.
With such steps, Yusuf believes the government’s fiscal credibility can be maintained while avoiding dependence on temporary revenue sources.
Previously, President Prabowo Subianto witnessed the handover of funds from administrative fines and state financial recovery amounting to Rp 11.4 trillion.
The handover was made by the Attorney General’s Office to the Ministry of Finance on Friday (10/4/2026). Attorney General ST Burhanuddin handed over the funds to Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.
The total value amounted to Rp 11,420,104,815,858.
The fund handover was part of the Forest Area Enforcement Task Force activities. The programme includes administrative fines and the reclamation of forest areas.
The fund details come from several sources. Forestry administrative fines reached Rp 7.23 trillion. Non-tax state revenues from corruption handling amounted to Rp 1.96 trillion.
Tax deposits from January to April 2026 reached Rp 967.7 billion. Tax deposits from PT Agrinas Palma Nusantara were recorded at Rp 108.5 billion. Environmental fines contributed Rp 1.14 trillion.
All funds have entered the state treasury and serve as additional financing for the government budget.