Economist values Suahasil's appointment to ensure fiscal policy continuity
Jakarta (ANTARA) - Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede believes that the appointment of Suahasil Nazara as the new Finance Minister can maintain the continuity of fiscal policy amidst the implementation of the 2026 State Budget (APBN) and the preparations for the 2027 State Budget.
Josua stated that Suahasil’s experience as Deputy Finance Minister makes the leadership transition process at the Ministry of Finance relatively smaller, as she already understands the management of revenue, expenditure, financing, and fiscal policy coordination.
“In general, I assess the appointment of Suahability Nazara as Finance Minister as tending towards the positive and relatively calming in terms of policy continuity,” Josua told ANTARA in Jakarta on Monday.
According to him, the challenge for the new Finance Minister is not only to continue the management of the State Budget but also to maintain the balance between efforts to increase economic growth, finance priority programmes, strengthen state revenue, and maintain fiscal credibility.
Josua predicts that the broad direction of fiscal policy will not change drastically, although Suahasil’s approach is likely to be more structured and cautious, with an emphasis on the quality of spending and the sustainability of financing.
“The main advantage is the relatively small transition period while the government is executing the 2026 State Budget and simultaneously preparing the 2027 State Budget,” he said.
However, he noted that Suahasil faces new challenges as she moves from a position as an assistant to decision-makers to being the primary decision-maker in fiscal management.
One urgent task, according to Josua, is to ensure that the implementation of the 2026 State Budget can be closed credibly by maintaining state revenue and priority spending without triggering uncontrolled expenditure surges at the end of the year.
Additionally, Suahasil is deemed to need to re-test the 2027 fiscal assumptions and prepare scenarios in the event that economic growth, state revenue, commodity prices, or exchange rates develop differently from government assumptions.
In the provisional posture of the 2027 State Budget Draft (RAPBN) agreed upon by the government and the House Budget Committee on 7 September 2026, state expenditure was increased by Rp9.1 trillion to Rp4,106.3 trillion. The budget deficit remains targeted at Rp671.2 trillion, or 2.40 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Josua also believes that strengthening state revenue should be achieved through expanding the tax base, increasing compliance, improving administration, and closing leakages, rather than relying on widespread tax rate increases.
According to him, such an approach is necessary so that the strengthening of revenue does not place excessive pressure on consumption or investment.
“Suahasil’s first step should not be to make new breakthroughs, but rather to provide certainty,” he said.
He noted that such certainty is particularly needed regarding the direction of the deficit, debt management, state revenue, and the government’s consistency in maintaining the principle of fiscal prudence.
He expects the market response to Suahasil’s appointment in the short term to be neutral to positive due to the factor of continuity.
Nevertheless, Josua believes that investor confidence will subsequently be determined by the government’s consistency in maintaining fiscal discipline.
“The Finance Minister’s credibility is ultimately determined not only by technical ability but also by the courage to say no if a programme is too expensive, unproductive, or poses a fiscal risk that is disproportionate to its benefits,” he remarked.
President Prabowo Subianto inaugurated Suahasil as Finance Minister on Monday afternoon, replacing Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.
Suahasil previously served as Deputy Finance Minister since 2019.
Prior to becoming Deputy Finance Minister, Suahasil served as the Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency of the Ministry of Finance.
She served as the Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency in 2015 before being appointed to the definitive position in 2016.