Economist Says Indonesia's Export Weakness Concentrated in a Few Commodities, Check the Data
Economist at the Centre of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, assesses that Indonesia’s export foundation remains quite strong despite non-oil and gas export values contracting by 4.5 per cent year-on-year in May 2026.
Yusuf believes that this weakness is more influenced by declines in certain specific commodities, while the cumulative export performance still records growth. He explained that the source of pressure on non-oil and gas exports in May 2026 is concentrated in several key commodities and does not indicate a widespread decline.
“If we dissect the 4.5 per cent contraction in non-oil and gas exports in May 2026, the source of pressure is actually quite concentrated and is not a weakness occurring across almost all commodities,” said Yusuf on Friday, 3 July 2026.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that Indonesia’s export value in May 2026 reached US$23.2 billion, a decrease of 5.73 per cent compared to the same period last year. This decline was primarily triggered by the drop in non-oil and gas exports.
The value of non-oil and gas exports reached US$22.45 billion, representing a 4.5 per cent contraction compared to May 2025. In April 2026, Indonesia’s export value was recorded at US$25.30 billion, growing by 21.98 per cent.
In terms of commodities, the largest decline in non-oil and gas exports in May 2026 came from the export of precious metals, jewellery, and gemstones, which fell by 59.35 per cent. This contributed a negative impact of approximately 2.93 per cent to non-oil and gas export performance.
Additionally, exports of metal ores, slag, and ash plummeted by 99.25 per cent, while iron and steel exports fell by 14.68 per cent. According to Yusuf, the decline in metal ore exports is a consequence of government policy, which prohibits the export of raw materials as part of efforts to encourage downstreaming.
“Therefore, this is more a consequence of policy rather than a signal of weakening export competitiveness,” said Yusuf.
Meanwhile, he noted that the correction in precious metal exports was influenced by the normalisation of gold prices following a very high rally last year, resulting in an unfavourable base effect.
Yusuf added that the decline in iron and steel exports is still triggered by the failure of demand from China to recover, particularly due to the weak property and construction sectors in that country.
He further noted that the 19 per cent US reciprocal tariff is beginning to place additional pressure on Indonesian exports. However, Yusuf assessed that the impact so far has been felt more by the textile, footwear, and electronics industries, and thus has not yet become the primary cause of the non-oil and gas export decline in May.