Economist Reveals Indonesia's Export 'Treasure' Beyond Nickel, CPO, and Coal
Indonesia is seen as having a significant opportunity to create new export engines beyond its mainstay commodities like crude palm oil (CPO), coal, and nickel. Plantation commodities such as coffee, nutmeg, cocoa, and coconut are considered to have the potential to support export growth while boosting the national economy.
Andry Asmoro, Chief Economist at PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk, stated that Indonesia has an advantage as one of the world’s largest coffee producers. He also noted that demand for cocoa and coconut commodities is continuously increasing, particularly from South Asian countries like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
According to him, these commodities could become new sources of export growth from the agriculture, plantation, and fisheries sectors, which only grew by 2.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. “This sector must receive serious attention. If growth in the agriculture, plantation, and fisheries sectors can be pushed higher, coupled with the manufacturing sector, Indonesia can grow sustainably above 5.5%, even reaching 6%,” he said.
He assessed that strengthening non-traditional commodity exports is increasingly important amid Indonesia’s efforts to reverse its trade balance, which has recorded a deficit for the last two months. This momentum is considered more open as global crude oil prices ease. Based on Refinitiv data, Brent crude oil prices were at US$87.95 per barrel, down from the US$90-100 per barrel range seen at the end of the first and second quarters of this year.
Andry estimates that oil prices will move to an equilibrium level in the range of US$70-80 per barrel. If this condition persists, the pressure from Indonesia’s energy imports could potentially be reduced. “If this can be maintained, our import burden should be relatively lighter going forward,” he said.
Therefore, he believes the government needs to capitalise on the momentum of falling oil prices to accelerate export growth. “Now it’s just a matter of maintaining our export growth amidst opportunities that are actually quite large,” Andry added.
For the record, Indonesia has recorded a trade balance deficit for two consecutive months. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported a trade deficit of US$450 million in June 2026, following a larger deficit of US$1.61 billion in May 2026. This condition has also widened the net export deficit in Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expenditure component in the second quarter of 2026 to minus 0.78%, compared to minus 0.02% in the same period last year.