Economist Forecasts Indonesia's Trade Surplus to Shrink to US$1.43 Billion

JAKARTA — Indonesia’s trade surplus is expected to continue in April 2026, though its value is predicted to shrink sharply compared to the previous month due to increasing imports and a weak export recovery.

Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at Permata Bank, estimates that Indonesia’s trade surplus for April 2026 will reach around US$1.43 billion. This figure is substantially lower than the March 2026 surplus, which stood at US$3.32 billion.

“For the April 2026 trade balance, we expect a continued surplus, but it will narrow quite sharply compared to March,” Josua told Kompas.com on Tuesday (2/6/2026).

Regarding exports, Josua anticipates year-on-year improvement. April 2026 exports are projected to grow by 9.10 per cent compared to the same period last year, following a 3.10 per cent contraction in March.

However, on a month-on-month basis, export growth is expected to be only 0.46 per cent. This indicates that the export recovery has not yet been fully supported by an increase in global demand.

The seemingly high annual export growth is also more heavily influenced by a low comparison base from April last year, which was affected by the Eid al-Fitr holidays.

“This means that the annual export improvement is largely driven by a low-base effect, rather than a surge in very strong export demand,” he said.