Economist: Consistency in Food Production Key to Controlling Inflation in 2026
Economist from the University of Indonesia (UI) Ninasapti Triaswati believes that consistency in national food production is a key factor in maintaining inflation stability and economic growth until the end of 2026 amid global food uncertainties.
“The supply of food and production, especially rice, greatly influences stability. Therefore, its consistency must be maintained,” said Ninasapti in her statement in Jakarta on Saturday.
Amid global uncertainties and pressures on world food supplies, the agriculture sector is seen as remaining one of the main buffers for the national economy through strengthened production, supply stability, and control of food prices.
Currently, Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 was recorded at 5.61 per cent year-on-year (yoy).
In the same period the previous year, the agriculture sector was one of the main sources of growth with a contribution of 1.11 per cent to national economic growth.
She believes that consistent food production needs to be maintained until the end of 2026 so that the agriculture sector can sustain its role as demonstrated throughout 2025, both in maintaining economic stability and controlling food inflation.
According to her, food commodities have a significant influence on national inflation because they are directly related to the basic needs of the population. Therefore, success in maintaining domestic food production and supply is seen as an important factor in preserving people’s purchasing power.
Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency, inflation in April 2026 was recorded at 0.13 per cent month-on-month. Amid this general price increase, the food, beverages, and tobacco group actually contributed a deflation of 0.06 per cent, influenced by the decline in prices of several food commodities such as broiler chicken meat, broiler eggs, and chillies.
Ninasapti stressed that success in maintaining national rice supply and production has a significant impact on the stability of prices for people’s basic needs.
“The supply of rice and also from the production side greatly influences stability. I think this needs to be well maintained,” she said.
She added that rice self-sufficiency demonstrates the significant role of the food sector in supporting the national economic conditions. The rice commodity is seen as having a significant contribution to inflation control because it is directly related to people’s basic needs.
“Rice has a very large contribution in controlling inflation. This means it shows the very significant role of food and beverages,” she stated.
“Clearly, rice has achieved self-sufficiency. Job opportunities in agriculture remain wide open. In recent years, interest among young people in entering the agriculture sector has also been quite substantial,” she added.
Currently, the government’s rice reserves are said to have reached more than 5 million tonnes stored in various Perum Bulog warehouses in several regions. This condition is seen as an important asset for maintaining national food security while anticipating global market fluctuations.
“I think these days, the sector that holds strength for our nation is the agriculture sector,” said Ninasapti.