Economic Growth Target of 6 Per Cent Cannot Rely on Investment Alone

An economist has stated that the 6 per cent economic growth target in the 2027 Draft State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (RAPBN) cannot rely solely on investment growth. The government must also ensure that public purchasing power recovers so that economic growth can be felt more broadly.

Universitas Airlangga economist Rahma Gafmi said investment is indeed showing positive performance. Investment realisation reached Rp1,931 trillion throughout 2025, absorbing more than 2.7 million workers, while in the first half of 2026, investment realisation reached Rp1,010 trillion, absorbing 1.4 million workers.

However, Rahma believes these achievements need to be examined more closely because most investment remains concentrated in capital-intensive sectors, such as downstream processing and infrastructure. This situation does not necessarily have a direct impact on the purchasing power of the middle and lower classes.

“Without equitable quality of job absorption, high growth risks being exclusive,” Rahma told reporters.

She assessed that household consumption, one of the main drivers of gross domestic product (GDP), is still under pressure. Inflation, waves of layoffs, and adjustments to regional transfers are all weighing on the purchasing power of the middle class.

“Relying on investment alone without restoring domestic purchasing power is like driving a car with one foot pressing the accelerator fully while the handbrake is still half pulled,” she remarked.

According to Rahma, the 6 per cent growth target requires strong acceleration. The government needs to improve bureaucratic efficiency, legal certainty, regional logistics, and the synchronisation of monetary and fiscal policies.

With investment realisation in the first half of 2026 reaching Rp1,010 trillion, she noted that the foundation for growth is indeed in place. However, the main challenge is ensuring that these achievements have a tangible impact on society, including reducing educated unemployment and fiscal pressures in the regions.