Economic Challenges of Implementing Zero ODOL in 2027
Trucking businesses, logistics operators, and transport academics fundamentally agree that implementing the zero ODOL policy is important to improve transport safety and goods distribution. However, its execution is considered to need careful preparation to avoid knock-on effects on logistics costs and the stability of goods prices for the public.
Economist Achmad Nur Hidayat from UPN Veteran Jakarta stated that the practice of ODOL is rooted in the high cost of national logistics, a situation exacerbated by limited transport mode options. This condition prompts some business operators to overload their vehicles as a way to cut goods distribution costs.
With the zero ODOL policy planned for January 2027, the required fleet to transport the same volume of goods will automatically increase. Achmad therefore considers that a sudden policy implementation without thorough readiness could potentially push up distribution costs, which would ultimately impact consumer-level prices and affect public purchasing power.
“This means there are additional costs for fuel, drivers, tolls, maintenance, loading and unloading, and distribution time,” he stated on Tuesday, 26 May 2026.
According to Achmad, the prices of food commodities such as rice, cooking oil, sugar, eggs, chicken, chillies, and other necessities like fertiliser and animal feed are not only influenced by production costs but also heavily depend on distribution costs. When price increases begin to be felt by consumers, the impact can easily spread into inflationary pressure.
Ultimately, the most vulnerable groups affected are households with fixed incomes, particularly the lower-middle classes. When the price of basic necessities rises while income does not increase, their share of spending on food becomes much larger.
“Zero ODOL must therefore not only be understood as a transport policy, but also as an economic and social policy,” he said.
Nevertheless, Achmad believes that delaying zero ODOL implementation is also not a solution. This is because ODOL practices continue to generate hidden costs such as road damage, traffic accidents, congestion, pollution, and energy waste, which are ultimately borne by the public. He therefore argues that what is needed is not a postponement without certainty, but the preparation of a mature and measurable transition process.
In the same vein, transport expert Djoko Setijowarno also believes that the repeated postponement of the ODOL policy is inseparable from the government’s concern about a domino effect that could trigger inflation. In fact, the regulation prohibiting ODOL was established 17 years ago through Law Number 22 of 2009 concerning Road Traffic and Transport.
The suggested solution, Djoko noted, is not large-scale field raids. According to him, the government needs to design commodity data-based law enforcement carried out gradually and selectively, tailored to the character and sensitivity level of each type of goods transported.
Furthermore, the government needs to build a goods movement database to map the commodities most frequently using ODOL practices, calculate the influence of logistics costs on goods prices, and identify the sectors most vulnerable to impact. This data-driven approach is considered important so that zero ODOL enforcement can be carried out in a more measured and gradual manner.
“Enforcing regulations on coal trucks clearly presents different challenges from regulating vegetable trucks from the Dieng plateau, which are racing against time to maintain freshness,” said Djoko.
From the business perspective, Indonesian Logistics Association Chairman Mahendra Rianto believes that enforcing zero ODOL without logistical ecosystem readiness could affect the sustainability of an industry that contributes 14.29 percent to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). When goods prices rise and public purchasing power weakens, demand naturally declines. Several logistics businesses in certain commodity sectors are feared to experience declining operations, even to the point of bankruptcy.
“Thus, the risk is bankruptcy and loss. Yet, many employees depend on it. Unemployment could occur when the policy is implemented,” said Mahendra.
Therefore, transport business operators require support in the form of fleet renewal subsidies, credit facilities, and tax incentives so they can transition to compliant fleets. Logistics tariff restructuring, transport mode integration, and an overhaul of the goods distribution system are also deemed necessary so that businesses will no longer rely on overloading practices to suppress operational costs.