East Timor's future
After months of talk and speculation, Indonesia finally has found itself faced with the tangible prospect of granting the former Portuguese colony of East Timor either autonomy within the Indonesian republic or independence. This stage, after what many East Timorese must have felt was an agonizingly long period, was reached with the signing on Wednesday in New York of a United Nations-brokered agreement by the foreign ministers of Indonesia and Portugal.
Undeniably, the signing of the agreement on Wednesday was an achievement for which not only Indonesia and Portugal, but also the United Nations deserve to be commended. After all, if successfully implemented, the agreement could mark the end not only of a long period of strife and bloodshed in the province, but also of a 24-year dispute which has affected Indonesia's standing in the international community.
Under the terms of the agreement, a poll will be held on August 8 in which the East Timorese will decide whether they want to remain a part of Indonesia or become an independent nation. Under the first option, East Timor would be given wide-ranging autonomy in matters of internal administration, including joint undertakings in oil exploration. However, defense and security and foreign and financial affairs would remain in the hands of the central government in Jakarta.
That, in a nutshell, is what the accord reached in New York entails. The arrangement looks sensible enough. The future of East Timor will be entirely up to the East Timorese to decide. Opting to remain a part of Indonesia would put such burdens as maintaining security and foreign relations on Jakarta's shoulders, while the territory would be assured of sufficient internal revenue under the terms of the agreement.
On the other hand, should the majority of the population opt for independence, all they have to do is reject the autonomy offer, which would automatically lead to East Timor's separation from Indonesia and, presumably, full independence after a brief period of trusteeship under the UN.
While Jakarta certainly is to be commended for finally daring to accept the unavoidable, the crucial process of making the poll a reality will place a heavy burden on the shoulders of Indonesia. Although the accord provides for a 1,000-strong UN presence in East Timor prior to the vote, a security agreement attached to the accord stipulates the responsibility for ensuring an environment "devoid of violence or other forms of intimidation" exists in East Timor prior to and during the vote rests with Indonesian authorities. Therefore, "the absolute neutrality of the TNI (Indonesian Armed Forces) and the Indonesian police is essential in this regard".
Indonesian authorities also will have the responsibility of disarming the thousands of pro-Indonesian militia members who are suspected of being backed by the Indonesian military. These bands of armed men have in past weeks attacked and intimidated proindependence activists in Dili and elsewhere in East Timor. Whether the TNI and the Indonesian police are capable, or even willing, to carry out the task of disarming the militia is unclear. After all, Indonesian soldiers and police have given their lives for the cause of "integrating" East Timor into Indonesia.
It is also no secret many politicians are unhappy with President Habibie's surprise offer of independence if the East Timorese reject the government's autonomy offer. Many Indonesians also continue to suspect some hidden motive behind the President's offer. Others believe he should not have made such a far-reaching policy considering he is seen as a mere caretaker President before an administration with more legitimacy can be elected. Certainly not every Indonesian or East Timorese welcomes the idea of independence for the former Portuguese colony.
Whatever the case, there is now no turning back for Indonesia. The best it can do is carry out the duties it has accepted with honor and dignity, and hope its claims of East Timorese loyalty to Indonesia will be proven correct in a fair and honest ballot.