Early Dry Season Prediction for 2026 in Indonesia and List of Affected Regions
The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) predicts that the majority of Indonesia’s regions will experience a dry season in 2026 that is longer than normal. Most areas of the Republic of Indonesia (RI) are forecasted to reach the peak of the dry season in August 2026.
Based on the Dry Season Prediction for 2026 in Indonesia issued by BMKG, the onset of the dry season across Indonesia does not occur simultaneously. Out of a total of 699 Seasonal Zones (ZOM), 4 ZOM (0.6%) will enter the dry season period in February 2026, and 7 ZOM (1.0%) will enter in March 2026.
Here are the details:
- In April 2026, 114 ZOM (16.3%) are predicted to enter the dry season, covering:
The northern coast of western Java,
The northern and southern coasts of Central Java,
Most of the Special Region of Yogyakarta,
Parts of East Java,
Parts of Bali,
West Nusa Tenggara,
East Nusa Tenggara, and
Small parts of South Sulawesi.
- In May 2026, regions predicted to enter the dry season reach 184 ZOM (26.3%), encompassing:
Northern Aceh,
Parts of North Sumatra,
Parts of Riau,
Small parts of the Riau Islands,
Parts of Jambi,
Parts of South Sumatra,
Lampung,
Most of Java,
Central Bali,
Small parts of West Nusa Tenggara,
Southeastern Central Kalimantan,
Western South Kalimantan,
Western South Sulawesi,
Small parts of Gorontalo,
Parts of Maluku,
Eastern Papua,
Papua Mountains,
Parts of South Papua.
- 163 ZOM (23.3%) are predicted to begin experiencing the dry season in June 2026, covering:
Most of Aceh,
Parts of North Sumatra,
West Sumatra,
Riau,
Parts of Jambi,
Parts of Bengkulu,
Bangka Belitung Islands,
Parts of South Sumatra,
Small parts of Lampung,
Small parts of Java,
Most of Kalimantan,
Parts of North Sulawesi,
Northern Gorontalo,
Parts of West Sulawesi,
Parts of Central Sulawesi,
Small parts of South Sulawesi,
Parts of Southeast Sulawesi,
Parts of Maluku,
Parts of West Papua,
Eastern Papua.
- 63 ZOM (9.0%) are predicted to start experiencing the dry season in July 2026, covering:
Parts of South Kalimantan,
Parts of East Kalimantan,
Most of Sulawesi,
Parts of North Maluku,
Parts of Maluku, and
Small parts of West Papua.
- In August 2026, 26 ZOM (3.8%) are predicted to enter the dry season, covering:
Small parts of East Kalimantan,
Northern South Sulawesi,
Northern Southeast Sulawesi,
Eastern Central Sulawesi,
Southern North Sulawesi,
Parts of North Maluku,
Parts of Maluku, and
Papua Mountains.
Anticipating Dry Season Risks
In response to various risks that may occur throughout the 2026 dry season, BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani emphasised the importance of anticipatory measures by ministries, agencies, local governments, and all levels of society. In the food sector, farmers need to promptly adjust planting schedules by selecting more water-efficient varieties that are drought-resistant and have shorter harvest cycles.
“This step must be accompanied by strengthening the water resources sector through the revitalisation of reservoirs and improvements to distribution networks to ensure the availability of clean water for domestic needs as well as operational requirements for hydroelectric power plants in the energy sector,” he stated.
In addition to water management, vigilance against environmental impacts is a top priority. Local governments need to prepare rapid response mechanisms to address declines in air quality and enhance preparedness in the forestry sector to prevent potential forest and land fires (karhutla).
“BMKG emphasises that all this prediction information serves as an early warning (Early Warning) that must be immediately translated into concrete actions (Early Action) by stakeholders to minimise drought disaster risks in Indonesia,” he concluded.