Dry Season Approaches, BMKG Issues Latest Warning on Strong El Niño
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has released its latest forecast regarding the dry season in Indonesia. BMKG also predicts a chance that El Niño in Indonesia will develop into a strong El Niño.
BMKG notes that by the end of March 2026, 7% of Indonesia’s Seasonal Zones (ZOM) have entered the dry season. This number will continue to increase significantly.
According to BMKG’s forecast, most regions of Indonesia will begin entering the dry season in April, May, and June 2026.
The regions that have already entered the dry season include parts of Aceh, parts of North Sumatra, parts of Riau, parts of Central Sulawesi, parts of South Sulawesi, parts of Southeast Sulawesi, parts of NTB, parts of NTT and Maluku, and parts of West Papua.
“BMKG will continue to monitor the development of global and regional climate dynamics and provide periodic updates on the information. The public is urged to continue following official information provided by BMKG through various available communication channels,” said BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani in a statement on the official website, quoted on Monday (6/4/2026).
Potential for Strong El Niño
Meanwhile, Deputy for Climatology at BMKG Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan added that there is a possibility of the El Niño phenomenon developing in the second semester of this year.
According to him, up to the end of March 2026, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are still observed in the Neutral phase.
“However, climate modelling shows that ENSO could develop into the El Niño phase in the second semester of 2026,” said Ardhasena in the same press release.
“At present, BMKG’s prediction for the intensity of El Niño is in the weak to moderate category with a 50-80% chance, and notes a small possibility (less than 20%) that this phenomenon could develop into the strong category,” added Ardhasena.
Prediction Accuracy
On the other hand, Ardhasena cautioned against hasty interpretation of current prediction data. The reason is the spring predictability barrier phenomenon—a drastic drop in the accuracy of weather and climate model predictions for ENSO as the Northern Hemisphere passes through the spring period (March, April, May).
He explained that the accuracy of El Niño predictions generated during the March-April period is generally reliable only for forecasts up to three months ahead.
Therefore, he emphasised, expertise is needed in understanding the multi-factor interactions that cause the emergence of El Niño conditions and their teleconnection impacts on Indonesia.
“For that reason, BMKG needs to continue monitoring data updates periodically and analysing their developments,” said Ardhasena.
“The confidence level regarding the intensity of El Niño will be higher in the May 2026 prediction results. Statistically, predictions in May have better reliability for covering climate conditions up to six months ahead,” he explained.
Although the development of El Niño intensity is still being monitored, Ardhasena affirmed that the 2026 dry season will be drier.
“BMKG emphasises that the 2026 dry season is predicted to be drier and last longer than the normal average, also as a contribution from the natural climate variability in Indonesia,” said Ardhasena.
“Facing these conditions, BMKG urges the public to remain vigilant through precise steps that can be taken by all parties,” he stated.
He advised policymakers and all parties to refer to official and credible climate development information from BMKG through various information channels. And to take anticipatory steps in various sectors and communities.