Doomsday scenarios ruled out as Asia ups Y2K compliance
Doomsday scenarios ruled out as Asia ups Y2K compliance
By Mynardo Macaraig
MANILA (AFP): A worldwide recession will not occur, Russian nuclear missiles will not accidentally launch themselves and phone lines will not go dead on the stroke of New Year's Day next year.
Experts at a three-day global meeting on the "millennium bug" ruled out Doomsday scenarios but warned that Asia still has to catch up with the rest of the world in preparing for the computer-spawned problem.
Banks worldwide are likely to be largely prepared for the Year 2000 (Y2K) bug, the experts said, warning against massive withdrawals.
Even most medical equipment is unlikely to break down except for those involved in testing processes, they said.
"Economic impact will be rather limited even though there will be short-term or local disruptions," said Bruce McConnel of the UN-sponsored International Year 2000 Cooperation Council.
However the experts did agree that the Y2K bug would have an impact far beyond the direct users of computer systems and many warned that Asian nations were among the least prepared to deal with the problem.
"Asia will be in for a pretty hard time," warned Joe Riley of Technological Information Consultants Pty. Ltd. of Australia, saying it could be a major disaster affecting vital utilities in several countries.
The Gartner Group, a Washington-based research firm, had found that while 40 percent of companies worldwide would experience major systems problems because of the bug, the rate of those affected in Asia would be much higher.
The glitch, in which older computer systems will not recognize the difference between the year 2000 and 1900 come Jan. 1, could spread like a contagion similar to the currency crisis that battered Asia, said the World Bank's principal information officer Chit Tharnthong.
"Regional cooperation is vital," he said. "Failure in one country can easily spread to another country even though it is more prepared."
Experts said among the most vulnerable are local communities and small and medium enterprises which they said are either unaware of or indifferent to the problem.
McConnel said a gathering of 34 Y2K coordinators from the Asia-Pacific, ranging from Japan and China to Iraq and held on the sidelines of the conference, found that "all nations had strong Y2K efforts under way," but that some were more advanced than others.
"The consensus of the participants was ... that a great deal of the problem (in Asia) will be solved," McConnel said. He did not name the countries that were lagging behind.
Japan, one of Asia's most technologically-advanced countries, has been criticized as being behind other developed nations while Hong Kong and Singapore were cited for their readiness.
Masanori Yoshikai, deputy director-general of Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry, brushed aside the criticisms.
He said crucial sectors of the economy such as power, health care, finance, telecommunications and major industries had reported they were 50 to 70 percent ready for the bug.
"Who is ahead and who is behind is not the important matter. What is important is who can show effective measures," he said.
Amable Aguiluz, Philippine coordinator and host of the conference, said China told the conference that contingency plans were being worked out although it did not present them.
"They are still evaluating their reports (which) are going to be ready in June. But they said they know that a lot of work has to be done and specific contingency plans are under way," Aguiluz told AFP.
A report from S. Ramakrishnan, India's Y2K coordinator, said that as of last December major airlines and 26 percent of banks were in compliance with Y2K standards in his country.
The military, all telecommunications systems, railway systems and government systems are expected to be in compliance by the end of June, he said.
Eighteen Asian and Pacific nations later signed a declaration at the conference, pledging to work together in preparing for the bug.