Doomsday is Getting Closer: Earth Can No Longer Sustain Humanity
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The human population is said to have exceeded the Earth’s capacity to support sustainable life. This warning comes from the latest study, which shows that the planet is no longer able to keep up with the current rate of human consumption.
The research, led by Corey Bradshaw from Flinders University, analysed over 200 years of global population data. The results indicate that humans are living far beyond the Earth’s carrying capacity.
In ecology, carrying capacity is the maximum number of individuals that can survive in the long term based on resource availability. However, humans are seen as continuously pushing that limit, particularly through the use of technology and fossil fuels.
Dependence on fossil energy has enabled a rapid population surge since the 20th century. Currently, the world population has reached around 8.3 billion people. The problem is that this figure is far above the optimal capacity.
The study estimates that the number of humans that remains sustainable with a decent standard of living is only about 2.5 billion people.
Meanwhile, the global population is projected to continue rising until it peaks at 11.7-12.4 billion in the late 2060s or 2070s. The figure of 12 billion is described as the absolute maximum limit that the planet can support. This means that even before reaching the population peak, humans have already surpassed the safe limit.
Researchers found that since the 1960s, population growth has begun to slow. However, the number of humans continues to increase, and the pressure on resources keeps growing.
This condition is described as a negative demographic phase, where additional population no longer results in faster growth but instead increases pressure on the environment.
The impacts are starting to become visible. The UN has previously stated that the world is experiencing water bankruptcy. Wildlife populations are declining due to competition with humans. Meanwhile, dependence on fossil fuels is accelerating climate change that damages ecosystems.
The research also found that rises in global temperatures, ecological footprints, and total emissions are more driven by population growth than per capita consumption.
“Earth cannot keep up with the way we use resources. We are pushing the planet harder than it can handle,” said Bradshaw, quoted from Science Alert, Wednesday (8/4/2025).
Nevertheless, researchers believe the situation is not entirely too late. Major changes in energy, food, land, and water use are still considered able to prevent a more severe crisis.
“A smaller population with lower consumption yields better outcomes for humans and the planet. The window for action is narrowing, but change is still possible if countries work together,” said Bradshaw.
However, global models like this have limitations because there are too many variables that are difficult to predict. Additionally, the concept of carrying capacity also has ethical implications because not all humans have equal access and consumption levels.
The authors conclude that human activities have delayed the Earth’s natural carrying capacity correction mechanisms without replacing them with more humane and environmentally friendly systems.