Don't Worry! The Dollar Won't Break Rp 18,000, Here's Why

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The performance of the rupiah exchange rate was observed to weaken again as trading opened at the end of this week. The Garuda currency had to slip into the red zone, ending the strengthening trend that had occurred the previous day.

Based on Refinitiv data on Friday (08/05/2026), the rupiah opened with a slight weakening of 0.06% to Rp 17,340/US.ThiscorrectioncameafteronThursday′strading(07/05/2026), therupiahhadsuccessfullyclosedstrongeratRp17, 330/US.

Although it has returned to the zone below Rp 17,400/US$ after initial pressure this week, several economists believe that the potential risk of rupiah weakening will continue into the second quarter of 2026.

Head of Macro Economic and Market Research at Permata Bank, Faisal Rachman, explained that besides high global uncertainty and increasing risk-off sentiment in financial markets, the current rupiah weakening is also influenced by seasonal factors, namely payments of domestic financial assets to non-resident investors that increase US dollar needs.

“In Q2 2026, there is indeed a seasonal pattern of payments for returns on domestic financial assets to non-residents, which causes the rupiah to weaken,” Faisal told CNBC Indonesia, quoted on Friday (8/5/2026).

On the other hand, there is still global uncertainty haunting the rupiah and causing increased risk-off sentiment.

Nevertheless, Faisal assessed that the depreciation pressure on the rupiah remains relatively controlled, and the chance of breaking Rp 18,000/US$ is not too great.

“The depreciation pressure is likely to continue, but I think the rupiah will still be able to hold below Rp 18,000,” he said.

In agreement, Economist for Global Markets at Maybank Indonesia, Myrdal Gunarto, explained that the room for rupiah weakening is currently tending to be limited because capital outflow pressure is no longer as great as at the beginning of the year.

This is because foreign investors had already largely exited the domestic stock market from January to March 2026. Therefore, the potential for further outflows is assessed not to be too large.

“Because of foreign exchange demand. Even if there is capital outflow in the stock market, I think the pressure is no longer as great as in the early period of this year, so even if there is outflow in the stock market or government bond market, the impact won’t be as big as in the January, February, or March periods,” Myrdal told CNBC Indonesia, quoted on Friday (8/5/2026).

In addition, Bank Indonesia is assessed to still have sufficient capacity to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability through interventions in the foreign exchange market or the government bond market.

Myrdal added that foreign investor interest in Indonesian government bonds remains quite high, especially when the yield on Government Bonds (SUN) rises close to the state budget assumption of 6.9%.

“When the yield approaches our state budget yield assumption of 6.9%, foreign investors immediately enter, so I think the impact from hot money outflow is starting to be limited,” he said.

Previously, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo explained that this rupiah weakening is a global factor due to rising geopolitical tensions triggering soaring oil prices, pressure from US interest rates, and an increase in the dollar index (DXY) by 4.41%.

This condition triggers fund outflows from all countries, including emerging markets.

He conveyed this at the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) press conference on Thursday (7/5/2026).

Amid these dynamics, in April to May, dollar demand in Indonesia is high in line with the Hajj season, as well as dividend repatriation and foreign debt payments.

“The global condition is like that, and coincidentally seasonally April-May has high foreign exchange demand for us to pray that the umrah-Hajj community is healthy and blessed, and ensure dollar needs are met in April-May because corporations have a lot of dividend repatriation and foreign debt payments,” Perry said.

“Indeed, the condition is like that, BI is all out to protect the rupiah, close coordination with the government and full support from the President,” Perry emphasised.