Donors assess tensions, unrest in Bali

Donors assess tensions, unrest in Bali

The Jakarta Post, Denpasar, Bali

Almost a week after successfully hosting a number of
international events, including the short visit of U.S. President
George W. Bush and having secured the island from any terrorist
attacks, Bali was slapped in the face with the death of two
supporters of the Golkar Party on Sunday in a clash between
supporters of Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) in Buleleng, around 100 kilometers
north of Denpasar.

The violence has added to the island's grief and has again
smashed the image of Bali as a safe haven for international
visitors.

Bali Governor I Dewa Made Berata, internationally acclaimed
Bali Police chief Insp. Gen. Made Mangku Pastika and other
security officials are now burdened with a heavy and difficult
task to maintain security in the coming months facing the general
election in April 2004.

Such security problems have been assessed by international
donor agencies the World Bank, the United Nations Development
Program (UNDP) and the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID) following the Oct.12, 2002 bombings.

In the joint report titled Bali Beyond the Tragedy, Impact and
Challenges for Tourism-led Development in Indonesia released on
Oct. 13, a day after the first anniversary of the Bali bombings,
the three agencies focused on various subjects including security
issues.

In order to assess these issues and the contributing factors
to social tensions in Bali, qualitative research was launched in
26 subdistricts and included a social tension component in the
key respondents survey in all 53 subdistricts across the island.

The social tensions assessment focused on past and present
incidents of social disturbances and unrest, the nature and
intensity of past incidents, current concerns of social unrest,
the management of social tensions and local security
arrangements.

According to the report, the Bali bombings were followed by
fears of ethnic strife as a result of a predicted increase in
Balinese-migrant social tension.

The Bali Update newsletter in January 2002 found that although
there were widespread fears of social unrest, community and
religious leaders, along with the community in general,
effectively managed these fears through calls for calm and
reflection in the aftermath of the attacks and a series of
cleansing ceremonies in Bali.

Nevertheless, it was reported that ethnic relations in Bali
had deteriorated somewhat and that actions to maintain community
relations and social cohesion were still needed.

Since January 2003, the economic impacts of the crisis have
deepened, leading to concerns that social tensions as a result of
social and economic pressures could result in increased
disturbances and unrest. Furthermore, the trials of the Bali
bombing suspects, continued enforcement of restrictions on
residency for migrants, and increased mobilization in the run-up
to the elections in 2004 may exacerbate social tension.

Despite its image as a peaceful island, Bali has actually
experienced isolated incidents of social disturbances over the
past years.

The BPS PODES 2003 survey records 7.8 percent of villages in
Bali reported conflict at the end of 2002, with Bali ranked 11th
out of the country's 30 provinces in terms of the occurrence of
local conflicts.

Information from key respondents from all 53 subdistricts in
Bali recorded only 14 subdistricts were without reports of social
conflict or disturbances since l998.

The incidents reported in the key respondents survey include
disturbances that have mostly led to the destruction of property.
However, in two districts, notably Gianyar and Buleleng, this has
led to casualties. In Buleleng, the disturbances even led to a
number of deaths. The majority of past disturbances reported
occurred in Buleleng (34 incidents), Karangasem (13 incidents)
and Badung (14 incidents).

The most commonly reported causes of past social tensions were
problems between youths, followed by politics, social problems
and economic pressures.

Politics was the common factor in Buleleng, Tabanan and Negara
regencies. Major incidents occurred in l999 in Buleleng, mainly
due to disturbances as a result of Megawati Soekarnoputri (now
the president) losing the presidential election to Abdurrahman
"Gus Dur" Wahid.

Youth gangs was another significant factor which could trigger
social unrest, especially in a number of regencies such as
Badung, Gianyar and Klungkung.

Disputes between youths from different banjars (traditional
customary villages) had resulted in confrontations and sometimes
violence. These are compounded by social problems such as
drunkenness among youths being identified as a key vulnerable
group.

Other factors include economic hardships. The downturn of
tourism and depressing provincial economic conditions in the last
few months have together caused tensions in a number of regencies
such as Bangli and Karangasem.

Any increase in future social tensions in Bali is likely to be
through existing fault lines, which have been shown in the past
five years to relate to youth and social issues, politics and
community relations both within the Balinese and between the
Balinese and non-Balinese (migrant) communities.