Donors assess tensions, unrest in Bali

The Jakarta Post, Denpasar, Bali

Almost a week after successfully hosting a number of international events, including the short visit of U.S. President George W. Bush and having secured the island from any terrorist attacks, Bali was slapped in the face with the death of two supporters of the Golkar Party on Sunday in a clash between supporters of Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) in Buleleng, around 100 kilometers north of Denpasar.

The violence has added to the island's grief and has again smashed the image of Bali as a safe haven for international visitors.

Bali Governor I Dewa Made Berata, internationally acclaimed Bali Police chief Insp. Gen. Made Mangku Pastika and other security officials are now burdened with a heavy and difficult task to maintain security in the coming months facing the general election in April 2004.

Such security problems have been assessed by international donor agencies the World Bank, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) following the Oct.12, 2002 bombings.

In the joint report titled Bali Beyond the Tragedy, Impact and Challenges for Tourism-led Development in Indonesia released on Oct. 13, a day after the first anniversary of the Bali bombings, the three agencies focused on various subjects including security issues.

In order to assess these issues and the contributing factors to social tensions in Bali, qualitative research was launched in 26 subdistricts and included a social tension component in the key respondents survey in all 53 subdistricts across the island.

The social tensions assessment focused on past and present incidents of social disturbances and unrest, the nature and intensity of past incidents, current concerns of social unrest, the management of social tensions and local security arrangements.

According to the report, the Bali bombings were followed by fears of ethnic strife as a result of a predicted increase in Balinese-migrant social tension.

The Bali Update newsletter in January 2002 found that although there were widespread fears of social unrest, community and religious leaders, along with the community in general, effectively managed these fears through calls for calm and reflection in the aftermath of the attacks and a series of cleansing ceremonies in Bali.

Nevertheless, it was reported that ethnic relations in Bali had deteriorated somewhat and that actions to maintain community relations and social cohesion were still needed.

Since January 2003, the economic impacts of the crisis have deepened, leading to concerns that social tensions as a result of social and economic pressures could result in increased disturbances and unrest. Furthermore, the trials of the Bali bombing suspects, continued enforcement of restrictions on residency for migrants, and increased mobilization in the run-up to the elections in 2004 may exacerbate social tension.

Despite its image as a peaceful island, Bali has actually experienced isolated incidents of social disturbances over the past years.

The BPS PODES 2003 survey records 7.8 percent of villages in Bali reported conflict at the end of 2002, with Bali ranked 11th out of the country's 30 provinces in terms of the occurrence of local conflicts.

Information from key respondents from all 53 subdistricts in Bali recorded only 14 subdistricts were without reports of social conflict or disturbances since l998.

The incidents reported in the key respondents survey include disturbances that have mostly led to the destruction of property. However, in two districts, notably Gianyar and Buleleng, this has led to casualties. In Buleleng, the disturbances even led to a number of deaths. The majority of past disturbances reported occurred in Buleleng (34 incidents), Karangasem (13 incidents) and Badung (14 incidents).

The most commonly reported causes of past social tensions were problems between youths, followed by politics, social problems and economic pressures.

Politics was the common factor in Buleleng, Tabanan and Negara regencies. Major incidents occurred in l999 in Buleleng, mainly due to disturbances as a result of Megawati Soekarnoputri (now the president) losing the presidential election to Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid.

Youth gangs was another significant factor which could trigger social unrest, especially in a number of regencies such as Badung, Gianyar and Klungkung.

Disputes between youths from different banjars (traditional customary villages) had resulted in confrontations and sometimes violence. These are compounded by social problems such as drunkenness among youths being identified as a key vulnerable group.

Other factors include economic hardships. The downturn of tourism and depressing provincial economic conditions in the last few months have together caused tensions in a number of regencies such as Bangli and Karangasem.

Any increase in future social tensions in Bali is likely to be through existing fault lines, which have been shown in the past five years to relate to youth and social issues, politics and community relations both within the Balinese and between the Balinese and non-Balinese (migrant) communities.