Dollar Strengthens, Rupiah Only Edges Up Slightly
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA — The rupiah exchange rate continues to be overshadowed by global sentiment due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Uncertainty in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran has led market participants to adopt a cautious stance.
Head of Economics at Permata Bank, Josua Pardede, stated that this situation has triggered a risk-off sentiment in financial markets. Investors view the peace process as still unclear and prone to prolongation.
“This sentiment was triggered by reports that the White House is still awaiting Iran’s response before starting peace negotiations. Investors interpret this statement as a signal of high uncertainty regarding the peace process,” said Josua on Friday (24/4/2026).
Despite pressure from global sentiment, the rupiah recorded a slight strengthening on Friday morning. The Garuda currency rose 6 points or 0.03 percent to Rp17,280 per US dollar from the previous Rp17,286 per US dollar.
Geopolitical developments indicate that negotiations have yet to find a clear path. The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran previously ended without an agreement.
The United States has even stated it will blockade ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. On the other hand, Iran has expressed readiness to negotiate but doubts the US commitment in the negotiation process.
From an economic perspective, the latest data shows that the US economy remains resilient. The April manufacturing and services PMI indices were recorded above market expectations.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 from 52.3, while the Services PMI increased to 51.3 from 49.8. This data provides positive sentiment for the US dollar.
However, labour market data shows emerging pressure. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 214,000 from the previous 208,000.
Josua predicts that the rupiah will continue to move in a limited range with high volatility. The rupiah is projected to be in the range of Rp17,225 to Rp17,350 per US dollar.