Dollar Hits Rp18,000 and the Urgency for 'Boring' Spokespersons
The weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate, which has formed a new psychological level after surpassing Rp18,000 per US Dollar, tests not only the resilience of fiscal and monetary fundamentals but also raises a critical question: who is trustworthy when discussing economic policy? Many analyses suggest the government is currently facing a macroeconomic communication crisis.
News regarding the circulation of anonymous speculative documents, such as a white paper containing rumours of the Finance Minister’s resignation, alongside disagreements between institutions in the mass media regarding realistic exchange rate values, reinforces one fact: financial markets are driven not only by capital flight dynamics but also by information noise. Ironically, this noise is partly contributed to by the government’s own internal communication.
In the macroeconomic landscape, perception is often regarded as reality. Faced with global uncertainty and seasonal pressures, such as corporate dividend payments abroad, the market requires predictable certainty. Unfortunately, the communication responses displayed by the government’s inner circle lately show symptoms of communicative euphoria that tends to ignore time-tested bureaucratic norms.
The emergence of new communication bodies within the presidential circle initially brought a breath of fresh air through a casual, tactical, and responsive style. However, when these young communicators apply this style to sensitive issues like currency stability, it becomes a boomerang. For example, when official communication attempted to calm the market by arguing that the State Budget (APBN) still possesses a simulation buffer even if the Rupiah drops to an extreme level of Rp22,000, it resulted in a serious psychological blunder. In macroeconomic theory, confirming extreme nominal figures to the public triggers what is known as the ‘Targeting Effect’. Instead of calming the market, such statements legitimise speculative figures as new targets for foreign exchange speculators (short-sellers) to test the psychological limits of the nation’s fiscal resilience.
This phenomenon aligns with Mordecai Lee’s thesis in ‘Government Public Relations: What is It Good For?’. Lee emphasises that the primary function of government PR is to present objective, accountability-based public information that adheres to institutional boundaries, rather than chasing popularity or using unconventional communication styles for high-risk issues. When communicators ignore these corridors to appear ‘trendy’, they violate the most fundamental principle: simplifying systemic risks into mere casual public narratives.
On the other hand, responses that are too relaxed or use humorous rhetoric amidst market panic indicate a psychological frequency mismatch between the government and market participants. Global investors do not need rhetorical creativity or ‘out of this box’ thinking; they require prudence and a solid, single command of data.
At times, new communicators, despite good intentions, fall into the delusion that they are conducting academic public education in the media space. They forget the fundamental logic of modern journalism driven by framing and clickbait. Once a sensitive phrase, such as a currency depreciation simulation, emerges from an official, the entire academic context is sidelined by newsrooms. What is highlighted is that the government is preparing for a worst-case economic scenario, which has the potential to incite panic.
The ‘Self-Fulfilling Prophecy’ phenomenon is always a specter during times of uncertainty. This psychological panic can drive domestic corporations and importers to engage in ‘panic buying’ of US Dollars to secure their assets. Technical rumours, initially manufactured by speculators for short-term profit, eventually transform into a real threat to dollar liquidity in the real sector.
The history of global central bank and finance ministry governance teaches a classic rule: in monetary and fiscal matters, the best spokesperson is one who is ‘boring’. The government needs to return to rigid but protective bureaucratic norms. Presenting a spokesperson who is sparing with words, normative, and even ‘unquotable’ by the media is, in fact, an effective macroeconomic defence strategy. When there are no bombastic statements or promised nominal figures thrown to the public, newsrooms lose the fuel required to produce sensationalist news.