Does extension of conflict in Aceh benefit anyone?

Does extension of conflict in Aceh benefit anyone?

Imanuddin Razak, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta, iman@thejakartapost.com

To the surprise of many, the ongoing military offensive against the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam province has led down an unexpected path -- the burning of school buildings.

The move is not only against the United Nations-sanctioned Geneva convention, which prohibits the attack or bombardment of undefended towns or buildings (including burning schools), but is hard to accept as students nationwide, including those in Aceh, are taking their final examinations.

Luckily the Acehnese students can still sit their finals at mosques and meunasah (small mosques), which are abundant in Indonesia's westernmost province.

Many have put the blame on the Indonesian Military (TNI), especially its intelligence, for its failure to prevent the burning of schools, mainly in Bireuen and Pidie regencies, two GAM strongholds.

Some reports put the number of destroyed schools near 400.

An interesting and honest statement -- perhaps in the defense of the TNI -- was once voiced by former coordinating minister for political and security affairs Soesilo Soedarman, who said a good intelligence system would not always mean flawless early detection of potential security threats.

"The most difficult thing for the TNI to do is to respond or anticipate a pendadakan (surprise attack)," the late Soesilo said. "There will always be loopholes, even in a perfect intelligence system."

An obvious example was probably the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on two American landmarks -- the Pentagon and the twin towers of the World Trade Center. But the fact the airplanes managed to escape the U.S.'s early detection and warning system and hit the targets confirmed loopholes in the intelligence and security system, no matter how modern and sophisticated it is.

While declining to specifically pinpoint the party responsible for triggering the attacks, a retired military officer said the attacks were undoubtedly meant to ruin the image of each side and win the sympathy of local people and the international community.

He said "the perpetrators could be from both parties or either one of them." A few other officers voiced a similar view.

As the TNI and GAM trade accusations and deny responsibility, it is difficult to name the perpetrators as witnesses only cite "masked people in black" in action.

The officer, requesting anonymity, added a third party could have sparked the arson attacks in a bid to see Indonesia torn apart and divided into smaller and independent regions.

He was referring to the failed Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) between the Indonesian government and GAM, in which GAM rejected Indonesia's demands that it drop its quest for independence, accept special autonomy for the Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam province and lay down its arms.

GAM's rejection was seen as surprising as in previous meetings with Indonesian representatives they had taken a softer line regarding their position.

It was further surprising to hear reports that TNI troops had managed to seize new and modern weapons during recent raids and clashes with GAM members.

Judging from their considerably small figures of about 5,000 members -- with their top leaders living overseas -- and their scattered areas of influence, it's difficult to believe that GAM has the money to purchase new and modern weapons and finance its armed resistance operations.

In comparison, the TNI, which has deployed a force about 10 times the size of GAM, has asked for Rp 1.23 trillion (US$143 million) to finance a six-month operation in Aceh.

Rough and simple calculations show that GAM needs Rp 123 billion for its operations for the same period.

The question would then be whether it is still necessary to continue burning schools, or continue war in Aceh in general, as no part would benefit from a prolonged armed conflict.

A victory for the TNI, at least from its viewpoint, will mean the sustainability of a united Republic of Indonesia.

But, the burning of schools, whoever the perpetrators are, will have a negative impact on the students as their education has been disrupted. A relevant question will be whether they are eligible and capable of entering higher stages of education as they have learned less than their fellow Indonesians in other provinces.

A further question for GAM is whether its armed resistance will bear fruit as they may not be able to win the war at all.

And before the war brings further casualties and financial loss to both warring parties, it is still not late to put an end to the war. There are more crucial and urgent tasks for Indonesia as a huge nation, and GAM as well, to do than merely being lured to try new and modern weapons and letting the "de-Balkanization" wave, which hit the former Yugoslavia and the former Soviet Union, sweep over Indonesia's archipelagic territory.