Doctoral Study Maps Factors Behind Split Ticket Voting in Two Indonesian Regions
A doctoral study by Pangi Syarwi Chaniago, founder of Voxpol Center Research and Consulting, has mapped the factors influencing split ticket voting in the 2019 Simultaneous Elections, focusing on West Sumatra and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
Pangi explained that split ticket voting is the behaviour of voters who choose one political party for the legislative election but a different presidential candidate not supported by that party. He noted the phenomenon is important to study because the 2019 election was the first to hold legislative and presidential elections simultaneously.
The research, conducted using a quantitative approach with 1,600 respondents and analysed using Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS), found that the rate of split ticket voting in West Sumatra reached 37.5 percent, higher than in NTT, which stood at 20.2 percent. This indicates that the decision-making mechanisms of voters in the two regions differ, and the factors influencing voting behaviour are not uniform.
The study tested four main variables: party identification, issue orientation, candidate personalisation, and shared interest orientation. Results showed that party identification had a negative effect on split ticket voting in both regions, meaning the stronger a voter’s psychological attachment to a party, the less likely they were to split their vote.
However, the influence of issue orientation differed. In West Sumatra, attention to political issues actually increased the tendency for split ticket voting, whereas in NTT, issue orientation strengthened voting consistency and reduced the likelihood of splitting votes. Differences were also found in shared interest orientation. In West Sumatra, shared interests between voters and parties or candidates reinforced political consistency, while in NTT, this factor encouraged voters to split their choices because legislative parties and presidential candidates were perceived as representing different interests.
Candidate personalisation was found to have no significant effect on split ticket voting in either province. Pangi stated that voting decisions were more determined by party identification, issues, and shared interests than by the appeal of candidate figures.
The research also found that shared interest orientation acts as a mediating variable that strengthens the relationship between party identification and split ticket voting. In West Sumatra, it reinforced the effect of party identification in suppressing vote splitting, while in NTT, it increased the tendency to split votes.
Pangi concluded that split ticket voting in Indonesia is not merely a voter strategy to create a balance of power between the executive and legislative branches, but rather the result of interaction between party loyalty, issue orientation, shared interests, and the socio-political context of each region. He said the study offers a contextual, multidimensional model of split ticket voting that is more relevant for explaining voter behaviour in Indonesia’s presidential multiparty democracy.