Discovery of terror cells a blow to ASEAN's investment chances
Discovery of terror cells a blow to ASEAN's investment chances
Bernice Han, Agence France-Presse, Singapore
The discovery of alleged terrorist cells in Southeast Asia
with links to Saudi militant Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network
could damage regional efforts to recapture foreign investors'
confidence, analysts say.
The terror scare could not have come at a worse time for the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- which was
already facing a stiff challenge from China in the economic arena
-- but regional security cooperation could boost confidence, they
say.
Evidence uncovered by the region's security officials
allegedly showed that suspected terrorists under detention in
Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines belonged to well-
organized cells plotting attacks on U.S. and other foreign
targets.
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country, is now under
pressure to take a firmer position against Islamic extremists.
Defense publication Jane's Intelligence Review said the al-
Qaeda network in Southeast Asia remains largely intact even as
its operations in the United States, Europe and East Africa are
unraveling under pressure from investigations and widespread
arrests.
"Certainly it will hurt ASEAN in the short term there," Bob
Broadfoot, managing director of the Political and Economic Risk
Consultancy (PERC) thinktank, told AFP.
"It just makes that trend faster when you combine it with
China getting into the WTO (World Trade Organization)," said
Broadfoot, referring to China's rising share of the foreign
direct investment (FDI) pie over the last decade.
China, along with its territory Hong Kong, captured 80 percent
of the FDI in 2000 in the Asian region outside of Japan.
This left the 10-member grouping ASEAN with a miserable 8.6
percent, down sharply from its 33.5-percent share of the FDI in
1996.
Since the 1997-98 financial crisis, ASEAN has been struggling
to regain its luster in the foreign investment community, whose
massive funds inflow into the region in the 1980s played a key
role in building up its industrial base and raising living
standards.
Singapore's elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew said over the weekend
that the danger of a terrorist attack persists in Southeast Asia
despite arrests of suspects.
The senior minister told CNN that some suspects were able to
escape after the city-state cracked down on alleged terrorist
cells, and their leaders will now have to start new groups and
adopt more complicated methods.
"So it's a battle that goes on, but the critical thing is to
clear the nests around us. The big nest was in Afghanistan,
that's not quite cleared, then there are nests in the
Philippines, there are nests in Indonesia," Lee said.
ASEAN secretary general Rodolfo Severino said cooperation and
intelligence sharing among ASEAN countries that led to the
capture of the suspected terrorists was a confidence booster to
the region.
"Of course there are concerns about the kind of activities
that these people are up to," Severino said.
"The way to look at this is the arrests prove that the
security and intelligence agencies are on top of the situation
and are cooperating in this in much the same way that Spain and
France are arresting terrorists," he said.
Ultimately, a lot will depend on whether ASEAN can remove the
perception that it is incapable of working together to stamp out
terrorism in the region.
"The real issue is perception. Will the Southeast Asian
governments be able to convince foreign investors that they are
working together ?" said Broadfoot at PERC.
Jose Tongzon, a regional economist at the National University
of Singapore, said he was encouraged by the measures taken so
far.
"Certainly the impression that we have shown to the world is
the governments in Southeast Asia are doing something to stamp
out terrorism," he said, citing the cooperation between the
Philippines and the U.S. military against alleged Filipino allies
of the al-Qaeda network.