Differences Between Dry Season and El Niño: Impacts and Timing in 2026

The differences between El Niño and the dry season have come under the spotlight following predictions by the Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) of a longer and drier dry season in 2026 than usual. Both terms are often considered the same because they both trigger hot weather and minimal rainfall. However, scientifically, El Niño and the dry season have fundamental differences, both in their causes, the nature of the events, and their impacts. In other words, the dry season is a routine weather pattern that almost always occurs every year. In contrast, El Niño is a global climate anomaly phenomenon that does not occur every year. This phenomenon is related to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which then affects atmospheric circulation on a broad scale. El Niño generally appears every 3 to 7 years and impacts various countries, including Indonesia. However, when El Niño occurs simultaneously with the dry season, the impacts can be far more extreme. Rainfall can drop drastically, air temperatures rise, and the risks of drought and forest fires also increase in several regions. In addition, air quality also has the potential to deteriorate, which can impact public health. At the same time, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon is also predicted to start forming in May 2026 and continue into the second semester of this year. The combination of these two phenomena has the potential to strengthen dry conditions in Indonesia.