Despite Impeachment Talk, Gibran Remains Among Top Five in Electability Surveys, Analyst Says

Jakarta — Although Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka has repeatedly faced controversy over his diploma, as well as calls for impeachment and criticism, he remains among the top five in several electability surveys.

Political analyst Adi Prayitno, who is also executive director of Parameter Politik Indonesia, has identified a key factor behind Gibran’s survey performance. He said the Vice-President’s position near the top of various surveys was closely linked to his popularity, which has reached a large proportion of Indonesians.

In several surveys, Gibran ranked behind Prabowo Subianto, Dedi Mulyadi and Anies Baswedan, while ahead of other national figures, including Ganjar Pranowo and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY).

“We know the Vice-President’s popularity is significant — above 90 per cent. Compared with others, whose figures are still around 70 to 80 per cent, public awareness of them is not as widespread,” Adi said on Wednesday (21 October 2026).

Adi said public recognition was an important factor in electability surveys, particularly when respondents were asked to name a presidential candidate without prompting. Figures who are widely known are more likely to be named than politicians whose recognition is less widespread.

This helps explain why Gibran continues to appear near the top of surveys despite facing persistent political criticism. Adi acknowledged that attacks on Gibran have been particularly prominent compared with those against several other political figures, but said this was not new.

“The attacks are clearly focused on Gibran, but that is not unusual. They have been coming one after another since his candidacy in 2024,” he said.

Adi also cautioned that high popularity does not necessarily correspond to electability. Although more than 90 per cent of the public recognise Gibran, the survey figures suggest he still faces a challenge in converting that recognition into political support.

“So it is understandable that the Vice-President is in the top five. But given his high popularity, what does being in the top five mean? It means that, among those who know the Vice-President, the proportion who would choose him is not dominant,” Adi said.