Deputy Finance Minister: Windfall Revenue Cannot Be Relied Upon for the Long Term
Deputy Finance Minister (Wamenkeu) Juda Agung stated that the rise in export commodity prices, such as coal and crude palm oil (CPO), due to the US-Iran conflict, has created unexpected gains, or windfall revenue, which contributes to increased state revenues. However, this situation cannot be relied upon for a long time.
“Of course, that is not enough. Windfall will be temporary, unstable, and cannot be relied upon as a long-term foundation,” said Juda during a speech at the Tax Education and Training Centre, on Wednesday, 8 April 2026.
The former Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia stated that the government needs to manage fiscal receipts to finance various expenditures that are increasing, particularly fuel subsidy spending. The answer does not come from luck, but from fiscal strategies, including state revenues.
Juda stated that there are four pillars that need to be strengthened to face the 2026 outlook. The first is strengthening the revenue base structurally. “We cannot continue to rely on the same revenue base, especially amid the geopolitical storms that have been changing year after year since 2022,” he said.
Revenue strengthening must be directed towards expanding the tax base fairly, capturing new economic potentials, and integrating cross-sectoral data from ministries and institutions. The current focus is not on burdening compliant taxpayers, but on closing structural gaps that have not yet been optimally addressed.
The second is promoting compliance based on risk and data. With data, the government can distinguish between taxpayers who are under pressure and need incentives, and those who have capacity but are not yet compliant.
The third pillar is balancing revenue and economic growth. If economic growth is maintained, revenues will follow sustainably. The last is strengthening human resources within the Ministry of Finance.
As of 31 March 2026, state revenues were recorded at Rp 574.9 trillion, up 10.5% year-on-year (yoy). On the other hand, state expenditures also increased significantly to Rp 815 trillion, or up 31.4%, so the state budget has experienced a deficit of Rp 240.1 trillion.
Amid the rise in fuel subsidy expenditures that risk adding to the state budget spending burden, the government is implementing savings strategies. On the revenue side, the government is also striving to increase non-tax state revenues (PNBP), imposing export duties, tightening imported products, and encouraging economic growth that boosts tax revenues.