Dented by Uncertainty, Indonesia's Balance of Payments Reverses from Surplus to Deficit
Bank Indonesia (BI) has released new data on Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (NPI) showing a deficit of US$9.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, reversing from a surplus of US$6.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. The NPI deficit occurred amid rising geo-economic and geopolitical uncertainty globally.
BI notes that the NPI in Q1 2026 recorded a deficit of US$9.1 billion and the foreign exchange reserves at end-March 2026 remained high at US$148.2 billion, or equivalent to financing 5.8 months of imports and government external debt payments. Despite the deficit, Head of BI’s Public Relations Department Ramdan Denny Prakoso said the NPI performance in Q1 2026 remained under control.
“Current account deficit remains low amid global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, capital and financial transactions recorded a deficit that remains contained amid rising uncertainty in global financial markets,” Denny said in a statement on Friday (22 May 2026).
He explained that the current account deficit was low. In Q1 2026, the current account recorded a deficit of US$4.0 billion or 1.1% of GDP, up from a deficit of US$2.5 billion or 0.7% of GDP in Q4 2025.
“The non-oil and gas trade balance continued to record a surplus albeit lower than the surplus in the previous quarter, in line with a global slowdown and disruptions in cross-border supply chains,” he added.
As for the oil and gas trade balance, the deficit also declined amid sustained domestic economic activity. The deficit in the primary income balance rose due to higher coupon or interest payments. Meanwhile, the services balance was claimed to have improved in line with a fall in imports of freight services.
“The performance of capital and financial transactions remains resilient amid rising uncertainty in global financial markets,” he continued.
Denny noted that foreign direct investment continued to record a surplus, reflecting positive investor sentiment about the prospects of the domestic economy and an investment climate that remains sound. Portfolio investment also remained in surplus, though lower than in Q4 2025, in line with rising global uncertainty.
Separately, other investments recorded a deficit, influenced by repayments of external debt and the placement of cash, deposits, and other assets abroad.
“With these developments, the capital and financial account recorded a deficit of US$4.9 billion in Q1 2026, after posting a surplus of US$9.0 billion in the previous quarter,” he explained.
Denny emphasised that going forward BI will continue to monitor global economic dynamics that could affect the NPI outlook and will strengthen the policy mix response, supported by policy synergies with the government and related authorities to bolster external resilience.
“The performance of the NPI in 2026 is expected to remain robust with a low current account deficit within a range of 0.5% to 1.3% of GDP,” he concluded.