Decoding Japan PM Takaichi’s ‘important neighbour’ message to China - what it means for ties
analysis East Asia
Decoding Japan PM Takaichi’s ‘important neighbour’ message to China - what it means for ties
After nearly a year of tensions sparked by Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, experts say Tokyo and Beijing appear to be testing the waters on repairing ties - but significant hurdles remain.
SINGAPORE: In a major policy speech on Monday (Oct 5), Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi laid out her government’s priorities for a 69-day parliamentary session.
But it was her choice of words on China that drew observers’ attention.
Describing the country as an “important neighbour”, Takaichi also pledged to build a stable relationship between the two nations.
“We will work to ensure communication on shared challenges, promote dialogue to safeguard our national interests, and build a constructive and stable relationship,” she said in her address.
At the same time, she drew a firm line - listing a series of concerns including disputes in the East and South China Sea, along with “Chinese military activity around Japan”.
Another subject conspicuously absent from Takaichi’s speech was Taiwan, though analysts said the omission was unsurprising and does not suggest any change in her position on the island.
“It is rare for a Japanese prime minister to mention Taiwan, with which Japan has no diplomatic relations, in an inaugural address or a policy address,” said Shin Kawashima, a professor of international relations at the University of Tokyo.
“Rather, it appears to be intended to convey that her remarks last November do not signify a change in policy toward China,” he said, adding that her administration has also “explicitly stated that there has been no change in Japan’s policy toward Taiwan”.
Those remarks last November had triggered a major diplomatic rupture, after Takaichi suggested that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a threat to Japan’s survival and potentially warrant a military response from Tokyo.
Beijing reacted angrily, demanding that she retract the comments - something Takaichi has refused to do - as tensions spilled over into trade, tourism and other areas of the bilateral relationship.
Against that backdrop, CNA looks at what Takaichi said, what she left unsaid, and whether her latest remarks signal a shift in her approach to Beijing - or an attempt to stabilise a relationship that has been under severe strain without changing Japan’s underlying positions.
WHAT DID TAKAICHI SAY ABOUT CHINA?
Only a relatively small portion of Takaichi’s wide-ranging speech focused on relations with China - with much of her address instead devoted to the economy.
But the language was still carefully balanced, observers said.
“China is an important neighbour, and despite difficulties, we have built up a long-standing relationship over the years,” Takaichi told parliament.
At the same time, she also made clear that Japan would “firmly assert our country’s positions”.
“We will continue to assert Japan’s position on various issues in the East and South China Sea, Chinese military activities around Japan, coercive measures, safety of Japanese citizens in China and human rights concerns, and we will strongly demand responsible action,” she said.
“She was largely reiterating Japan’s longstanding policy stance towards China,” said Sarah Soh, an associate research fellow with the Regional Security Architecture Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).
“It might reflect some effort to temper tensions, but this diplomatic language is par-for-the-course given that it forms part of her broader policy speech.”
Inhwan Oh, senior research fellow and executive director at the East Asia Institute in Seoul, described Takaichi’s remarks as “a form of de-escalation within certain limits” - reflecting competing domestic and diplomatic considerations.
“(While) the Japanese government’s current position on Taiwan is politically popular, Japanese businesses may hope that bilateral relations will be managed differently from political ones,” Oh said.
Japanese academic Kawashima noted that Takaichi had also previously described China as an “important neighbour” after taking office last October - before her meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The phrase has since appeared in various official Japanese foreign policy documents, Kawashima said, suggesting that its use in this week’s speech did not represent a new approach towards Beijing.
Takaichi’s tone “reciprocates” that of Chinese foreign affairs minister Wang Yi, who last week said that ties with Tokyo were “waiting to be normalised again”, noted political scientist Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Wang and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng had met with former Japanese foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya in Beijing in late September - the highest-level reception by Chinese officials for a visiting Japanese politician in nearly a year.
Iwaya led a 50-member business delegation of corporate executives, in a trip aimed at restoring stability.
“Even though it was non-governmental, the fact that there was a high-level Chinese reception of a Japanese delegation is some indication that Beijing wants to smooth relations even if it does not want to change its position,” said Chong.
Taiwan was not mentioned during Takaichi’s Oct 5 speech.
Beijing claims the island as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to take it.
To date, Takaichi has not retracted her controversial remarks suggesting that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a military response from Tokyo.
“It is unsurprising that Taiwan was not mentioned in her speech,” said Soh from RSIS, adding that “the fundamental source of tension remains unresolved”.
“China wants Takaichi to retract her statement on Taiwan and she cannot do so without risking political reputational damage, so a retraction is thus unlikely,” Soh said.
Chong from NUS said: “She did not disavow her previous statement, which at any rate was in response to a question rather