Data Speaks: How Many Days Does the Rupiah Need to Rebound by Rp500 After Plunging?

Amid a weakening rupiah that continues to breach new psychological levels, we can examine the other side of the Garuda currency’s historical movements. Significant pressure on the rupiah does not always mean the currency cannot strengthen again. In several previous instances, the rupiah weakened past important thresholds but managed to reverse course once market pressure began to ease. This condition coincides with the deepening pressure on the rupiah in today’s trading, Thursday (4/6/2026). The rupiah officially breached the new psychological level of Rp18,000/US.CitingRefinitivdata, therupiahcloseddown0.45. This position marks the rupiah’s weakest level of all time against the US dollar. This depreciation extends the trend of pressure on the rupiah in recent months. After previously breaching Rp17,000/US, therupiahsubsequentlyweakenedaboveRp17, 500/US, and is now officially above Rp18,000/US.Therupiah′spersistentbreachingofpsychologicallevelscertainlymakesthemarketcautious.However, basedonhistoricaldata, pressurelikethisisnotentirelynew.Inrecentyears, therupiahhasalsoweakenedpastimportantthresholds, fromRp14, 500/US, Rp15,000/US, Rp15, 500/US, to Rp16,000/US.Interestingly, onanumberofoccasions, therupiahwasabletostrengthenbymorethanRp500/US following that pressure. Based on rupiah closing data, in four moments outside the 2020 period, the rupiah required between 51 and 126 days to strengthen by more than Rp500/US$ after breaching its psychological level. One moment of pressure occurred in 2018. At that time, the rupiah breached the psychological level of Rp15,000/US$ on 2 October 2018. The rupiah closed at Rp15,040/US$. Pressure was largely influenced by global factors. The US dollar was strong because the US central bank (The Fed) adopted a hawkish stance or tightened interest rates. Domestically, the market was scrutinising Indonesia’s widening current account deficit. Throughout 2018, the current account deficit was recorded at around US31.1billion, or2.98, meaning it took 55 calendar days to return below its psychological level at Rp15,000/US.Thenextinstanceoccurredon22May2019, whentherupiahbreachedRp14, 500/US and closed at Rp14,520/US.Pressurecamefromglobalanddomesticfactors, includingtheUS − Chinatradewar.AspressureeasedandexpectationsforlooserUSmonetarypolicygrew, therupiahstrengthenedbackbelowRp14, 000/US on 12 July 2019, at Rp13,999/US, taking51daystorecovermorethanRp500/US. On 20 October 2022, the rupiah weakened above Rp15,500/US, closingatRp15, 570/US. It took 96 days to reverse course and close below Rp15,000/US$ at Rp14,885/US$ on 24 January 2023. Pressure in 2022 stemmed from aggressive Fed rate hikes to combat high inflation, partly triggered by commodity price surges after the Russia-Ukraine war began. Bank Indonesia also raised interest rates. However, Indonesia benefited from the commodity price surge as a commodity exporter, particularly from coal, achieving a trade surplus of US54.54billionthroughout2022.ThenextmomentoccurredinApril2024, whentherupiahbreachedRp16, 000/US and closed at Rp16,170/US$ on 16 April 2024. The weakening was influenced by external factors, with a strong US dollar driven by expectations.