Cultism may endanger PDI's democratic life

Cultism may endanger PDI's democratic life

Megawati Soekarnoputri retained control of her unrecognized
Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) faction without even being
challenged at its congress in Bali over the weekend. Political
scientist Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia discusses the
outcome of the congress.

Question: What does the unanimous election of Megawati as
the faction's chairwoman mean?

Arbi: The absence of any rivalry in the leadership election
indicates that PDI has ignored competition and democracy. Such an
election resulted in the appointment of a leader based only on
charisma, which might result in the establishment of a cult.
Cultism is contradictory to democracy.

I'm afraid that the cult based around her father, the late
president Sukarno, may strengthen the cult growing around her. It
is a pity that PDI, as a major party with great future prospects
to promote democracy in the country, is overshadowed by cultism
which may hinder the process of democratization itself.

Q: The congress also named her as PDI's candidate in next year's
presidential election, But how competent a leader is she really?

A: Megawati has shown a certain degree of competence in the way
she has led her party. But I'm doubtful about her ability to lead
the state for several reasons. Even though she has expanded PDI's
base by appointing Maj. Gen. (ret.) Theo Syafei, Nahdlatul Ulama
figure Hasyim Wahid and scholar Dimyati Hartono as her deputies,
she failed to recruit a broad spectrum of aspirations, such as
representatives of non-governmental organizations, to the board
of executives. That means that she wants her organization to be
free of opposition to her.

Q: Do you think the recruitment of Theo Syafei will give PDI any
advantages?

A: I'm afraid the recruitment of military personnel, even though
they have retired, may lead to PDI losing the respect of some
intellectual circles, including university students, who are now
fighting to exclude the military from political power.

Q: The congress decided not to change the name of the party. Do
you think there will be any problems regarding its participation
in next year's general election, considering that the government
recognizes only the PDI faction led by Budi Hardjono?

A: Such a problem should be easily solved by the general election
committee, which could add a different code or letter to each of
the two rival factions.

Q: What do you think about the government's stance, which finally
permitted the congress after initially objecting to it?

A: Such an attitude indicates that there was a difference of
opinion between Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto and Minister
of Home Affairs Syarwan Hamid, who stuck to the New Order
government's policy of not recognizing Megawati's PDI faction.
Wiranto sacrificed Syarwan on the basis that the political
situation had changed and that refusing to permit the congress
would mean that ABRI remained hostile to the PDI faction.

Q: How come the congress passed off safely without any major
incidents even though there was no heavy military deployment?

A: Security can be optimally guaranteed if it is delegated to the
party. The peaceful nature of the congress could be used to
negate claims that only the government is able to manage social
affairs.

Indeed considering that public opposition to the military has
been increasing over the last 10 years in line with the fact that
the military has often hindered the development of democracy and
that several of its operations have violated laws, a heavy
military presence might even have provoked people's anger.

Q: What do you think about the rivalry between Megawati's and
Budi's factions?

A: Developments show that Megawati's faction has a larger number
of supporters and has more systematic and comprehensive programs
than Budi's camp. However, both of them seem to be trying to get
closer to, or gain more sympathy from, the Armed Forces.

Q: Will Megawati's faction win a major share of the vote in the
coming general election scheduled for May 1999?

A: I project that next year's general election will produce five
major political parties -- Megawati's PDI, the People's Awakening
Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN), Golkar and the
Crescent Star Party (PBB) -- with each collecting between 15
percent and 25 percent of the total vote, with the first three as
the leaders.

Q: Does PDI have a chance of being in a position to lead the
country?

A: It will get the chance to lead the country if it forms a
coalition with PKB -- a new party established by leaders of
Indonesia's largest Moslem organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). The
establishment of such a coalition is possible due to the close
relations between Megawati and NU chairman Abdurrahman Wahid.
Abdurrahman, better known as Gus Dur, may lead the coalition but
he would ask Megawati to take over it if he falls ill.

However, to create such a coalition would not be easy because
PKB is not directly under the control of Gus Dur and PKB
supporters, most of whom are rural-based traditional Moslems, may
object to it on the grounds that PDI consists of not only Moslems
but also followers of other religions. (riz)