Cultism may endanger PDI's democratic life
Megawati Soekarnoputri retained control of her unrecognized Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) faction without even being challenged at its congress in Bali over the weekend. Political scientist Arbi Sanit of the University of Indonesia discusses the outcome of the congress.
Question: What does the unanimous election of Megawati as the faction's chairwoman mean?
Arbi: The absence of any rivalry in the leadership election indicates that PDI has ignored competition and democracy. Such an election resulted in the appointment of a leader based only on charisma, which might result in the establishment of a cult. Cultism is contradictory to democracy.
I'm afraid that the cult based around her father, the late president Sukarno, may strengthen the cult growing around her. It is a pity that PDI, as a major party with great future prospects to promote democracy in the country, is overshadowed by cultism which may hinder the process of democratization itself.
Q: The congress also named her as PDI's candidate in next year's presidential election, But how competent a leader is she really?
A: Megawati has shown a certain degree of competence in the way she has led her party. But I'm doubtful about her ability to lead the state for several reasons. Even though she has expanded PDI's base by appointing Maj. Gen. (ret.) Theo Syafei, Nahdlatul Ulama figure Hasyim Wahid and scholar Dimyati Hartono as her deputies, she failed to recruit a broad spectrum of aspirations, such as representatives of non-governmental organizations, to the board of executives. That means that she wants her organization to be free of opposition to her.
Q: Do you think the recruitment of Theo Syafei will give PDI any advantages?
A: I'm afraid the recruitment of military personnel, even though they have retired, may lead to PDI losing the respect of some intellectual circles, including university students, who are now fighting to exclude the military from political power.
Q: The congress decided not to change the name of the party. Do you think there will be any problems regarding its participation in next year's general election, considering that the government recognizes only the PDI faction led by Budi Hardjono?
A: Such a problem should be easily solved by the general election committee, which could add a different code or letter to each of the two rival factions.
Q: What do you think about the government's stance, which finally permitted the congress after initially objecting to it?
A: Such an attitude indicates that there was a difference of opinion between Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto and Minister of Home Affairs Syarwan Hamid, who stuck to the New Order government's policy of not recognizing Megawati's PDI faction. Wiranto sacrificed Syarwan on the basis that the political situation had changed and that refusing to permit the congress would mean that ABRI remained hostile to the PDI faction.
Q: How come the congress passed off safely without any major incidents even though there was no heavy military deployment?
A: Security can be optimally guaranteed if it is delegated to the party. The peaceful nature of the congress could be used to negate claims that only the government is able to manage social affairs.
Indeed considering that public opposition to the military has been increasing over the last 10 years in line with the fact that the military has often hindered the development of democracy and that several of its operations have violated laws, a heavy military presence might even have provoked people's anger.
Q: What do you think about the rivalry between Megawati's and Budi's factions?
A: Developments show that Megawati's faction has a larger number of supporters and has more systematic and comprehensive programs than Budi's camp. However, both of them seem to be trying to get closer to, or gain more sympathy from, the Armed Forces.
Q: Will Megawati's faction win a major share of the vote in the coming general election scheduled for May 1999?
A: I project that next year's general election will produce five major political parties -- Megawati's PDI, the People's Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN), Golkar and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) -- with each collecting between 15 percent and 25 percent of the total vote, with the first three as the leaders.
Q: Does PDI have a chance of being in a position to lead the country?
A: It will get the chance to lead the country if it forms a coalition with PKB -- a new party established by leaders of Indonesia's largest Moslem organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). The establishment of such a coalition is possible due to the close relations between Megawati and NU chairman Abdurrahman Wahid. Abdurrahman, better known as Gus Dur, may lead the coalition but he would ask Megawati to take over it if he falls ill.
However, to create such a coalition would not be easy because PKB is not directly under the control of Gus Dur and PKB supporters, most of whom are rural-based traditional Moslems, may object to it on the grounds that PDI consists of not only Moslems but also followers of other religions. (riz)