Critical Mineral Revenue Projected to Grow 539 Percent

Institute for Development of Economics and Finance Green Transition Initiative (INDEF GTI) Director Imaduddin Abdullah estimates global revenue from critical minerals will increase by up to 539 percent by 2050. Conversely, revenue from the coal sector is projected to decline by around 59 percent over the same period. According to Imaduddin, the surge in demand for critical minerals up to 2040 is no longer primarily driven by electric vehicles. That demand is also driven by the need for Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) infrastructure. “We see this as a major potential, especially in the context of the government’s programme related to the development of 100 gigawatt solar power plants. This 100 GW agenda will increase the need for solar panels, batteries, cables, aluminium, glass, copper, and various other electrical components,” Imaduddin said during an INDEF discussion in Jakarta on Wednesday, 17 June 2026. He explained that the development of energy storage systems to support renewable energy plants will be a major factor driving demand for critical minerals such as nickel, cobalt, and manganese. The energy storage sector’s contribution to demand for these minerals is estimated to reach around 74 percent. Imaduddin noted that Indonesia currently holds critical mineral reserves such as nickel amounting to 62 million tonnes, or nearly half of the world’s reserves. Despite possessing large critical mineral reserves, Imaduddin assessed that Indonesia still faces a number of challenges in maximising the economic benefits from the sector. One of the main issues is the lack of a fully established domestic supporting component industry. For example, Indonesia still relies on imports of solar wafers, a key component in the solar panel industry with high added value potential. He continued that solar wafers can have an added value of up to 68 times. “But until now, that industry is not yet available in Indonesia and we still depend on imports,” he said. Director of Mineral Business Development at the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Cecep Mochammad Yasin, said that climate change pressures and global geopolitical dynamics are accelerating the need for a transition to clean energy. According to him, this change will shift the world’s energy demand structure from fossil fuels, currently underpinned by coal, towards new and renewable energy that requires a large supply of critical minerals. “Demand for critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, graphite, copper, and rare earth elements, is projected to continue rising until 2040 to support the development of electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, and modern electricity grids,” Cecep said. He added that critical minerals will become one of the determining factors for global economic competitiveness in the future. He believes that countries that can master the supply chain and processing industry of critical minerals will hold a strategic position in the new energy economy. On the other hand, Cecep said coal is still expected to play an important role in the coming decades. However, structurally, the commodity is entering a phase of relatively stagnant growth and has the potential to gradually decline in line with the development of new and renewable energy. “Globally, coal still has a very large volume. But structurally, it has entered a relatively flat phase and is starting to gradually decline with the development of new and renewable energy,” he said.