Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: The New Map of Winners and Losers in the Global Oil Market
High volatility is likely to continue until the end of May.
The US-Israel war in Iran is triggering the largest oil supply disruption in modern history. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing governments around the world to redefine energy security in an era of geopolitical fragmentation.
Energy resilience is no longer just about how much oil is produced, but where that oil flows, who can access it, and which countries are able to absorb shocks when supplies are cut off.
Nearly 15% of global oil supplies have disappeared from the market. Crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel after an initial surge. These prices are likely to move higher as global inventory buffers dwindle.
While the oil market is global, the consequences are not evenly distributed. Asia is the first and hardest hit region.
Last year, the region relied on the Middle East for about 60% of its oil imports. This disruption is severe not only for crude oil but also for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel, which have doubled in price since January.
In low-income countries, this crisis manifests as extreme shortages:
Just as the oil crisis of the 1970s reshaped global energy policy, this large-scale disruption will force governments to rethink their strategies:
Route Diversification: Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are beginning to optimize pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz towards the Red Sea.
Energy Sovereignty: Mexico and African countries are investing heavily in domestic refining capacity to avoid reliance on finished product imports.
Mass Electrification: This crisis is a catalyst for the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and clean energy, especially in regions with limited fossil fuel reserves.
Ultimately, the war in Iran proves that even the world’s largest oil producers cannot fully insulate themselves from global market shocks. The future energy world will be increasingly divided along geopolitical fault lines. Security is no longer about production volume, but infrastructure resilience and the speed of the energy transition. (WSJ/I-2)