Cracks in OPEC: UAE Exits, Venezuela and Nigeria Could Follow?

JAKARTA - The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This decision is both surprising and reveals the cracks within the organisation. The UAE’s decision comes after weeks of missile and drone attacks by Iran, a fellow OPEC member. Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, stated that the UAE’s exit marks a new chapter in the changing membership of the group. “If countries that comply with their quotas are fed up with those that do not, we could see other countries leaving, which could ultimately make OPEC irrelevant as a cartel,” he said, quoted from CNBC on Wednesday (29/4/2026). In recent years, countries such as Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola have left the group. For the record, Angola exited in 2024, while Qatar ended its membership in 2019. The cartel has long struggled with uneven compliance, with some members historically exceeding their production quotas, including Iraq and Kazakhstan. “Although the UAE has left OPEC, they are not the first and may not be the last,” Lipow said. Oil analysts point to several countries that could potentially leave the organisation due to feeling constrained by OPEC+ restrictions. Kpler’s chief oil analyst, Matt Smith, named Kazakhstan as a prime candidate for exiting OPEC. The country has a record of continuous overproduction.