Could Trump’s Midterm Defeat Affect India-US Relations?

After the Democratic Party won a resounding victory in the midterm elections and gained control of both chambers of Congress, Donald Trump’s Republican administration is certain to face closer scrutiny for the remainder of its term.

Trump is also expected to encounter resistance to his controversial foreign policy, which has distanced the US from many of its allies and drawn the country into another unpopular war in the Middle East. At the same time, his administration has taken a number of less prominent but still controversial steps on the global stage, including a series of confrontations with India.

Relations between New Delhi and Washington remain strained by stalled trade talks, immigration restrictions and differences over India’s purchases of Russian oil and weapons. This is so despite the US granting an exemption from its oil import ban in March 2026 and Trump lifting some sanctions on Russia in October.

Although the new US Congress may put pressure on Trump over issues such as tariffs and immigration, the president retains considerable authority to determine the direction of foreign policy.

Congress could put pressure on Trump’s trade policy

Trump’s policy towards India is being tested in the trade sector. India and the US have yet to formalise the interim framework discussed by Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February. The two countries remain at odds over market access and various other trade commitments.

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, founder of the Mantraya Institute of Strategic Studies, expects the new Congress to impose “closer scrutiny of the protectionist measures” pursued by the Trump administration.

US legislators, she said, could push for “closer trade oversight and clearer standards on environmental and labour issues”.

Speaking to DW, she said this could offer some relief to India, which counts the US as its largest export market.

D’Souza also said that “the fundamental pillars of the India-US strategic partnership are expected to remain strong” and that “the long-term goal of deepening economic ties is likely to continue”.

Is Trump irrational?

Immigration presents a separate challenge. The administration’s tightening of H-1B visa rules, including fees of up to about 1.6 billion rupiah for certain new applications, has caused concern among Indian professionals and technology companies that rely on the programme to work in the US.

A Democratic majority is likely to increase scrutiny of the policy. But that would not automatically overturn measures introduced through Trump’s executive action.

“Both parties have bigger issues to deal with,” said Rajkrishna Iyer, a licensed immigration lawyer in California. “For more than 25 years, Congress has done nothing on immigration,” he added.

Iyer said legal immigration is not a top priority for voters. Nevertheless, he viewed the midterm result as a message to Trump about the direction of his immigration policy.

“A rational president would not spend time imposing further restrictions on legal immigration. But, as we know, this president is not rational,” Iyer said.

In his view, the new, very high fees for some H-1B visa applications could be challenged in court.

“The new rule is unlikely to stand. And if it does, federal courts are likely to strike it down because the fee is unreasonable,” Iyer said.

Although the executive branch has the authority to raise fees to reflect administrative costs and inflation, Iyer argued that charges of this scale could deter people from applying for immigration legally.

“Only Congress can pass such a law,” he said.

The US still wants to reduce its dependence on Russia

The new balance of power in Washington could also bring geopolitical shifts and adjustments to policy towards Russia. However, it remains unclear whether a Democratic-controlled Congress will push for a change in the dispute between New Delhi and Washington over India’s purchases of Russian energy.

When Congress voted on sanctions against Russia in September, a large number of Democrats joined Republicans in supporting trade restrictions on Moscow.

“On Russian oil, the administration is likely to continue prioritising reducing dependence on Moscow, but will handle the issue with diplomatic caution to avoid straining relations with New Delhi,” D’Souza said.

India angered by US arms supplies to Pakistan

The dynamics of the two countries’ relationship are also linked to the war in Iran. Any escalation could affect energy exports from the Middle East and make India more vulnerable because of its heavy reliance on imported oil.

However, Navtej Sarna, a former Indian ambassador to the US and Israel, cautioned against drawing hasty conclusions about the impact of the election result on US foreign policy in the Middle East.

“It may be too simplistic to analyse these results in terms of their immediate impact on particular areas of foreign policy. Much will depend on how Trump responds,” Sarna told DW.

At the same time, Sarna expects Washington to become “a more contested place”, with Congress offering stronger resistance on various divisive issues between India and the US.

“If that can create balance and stability and restore institutional relations, it is good for the long-term future of our relationship,” he added.

Security cooperation is another source of friction. New Delhi remains the largest buyer of Russian weapons, a situation that displeases Washington. India, in turn, opposes US arms supplies to Pakistan, including the sale of advanced military technology worth around 11 trillion rupiah for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets.

“Washington’s military support for Pakistan remains a complex issue. However, ongoing regional adjustments and US concerns about stability in the region are likely to prevent any significant policy change,” D’Souza said.

Could Trump’s policy towards India become tougher?

The bigger question raised by the election result is whether Washington will become more predictable or whether it will prompt Donald Trump to become more confrontational.

A weakened president may be more inclined to seek compromises at home. But Trump could also respond to congressional opposition by taking a harder line elsewhere.

“We hope this electoral defeat will prompt Trump to reassess his previous actions more carefully,” Amitabh Mattoo, dean of the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told DW.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that it was too early to assess the impact on India-US relations.

“Rather than softening his approach, the president could become more insistent and take a tougher stance towards New Delhi if he believes Indians, particularly some members of the diaspora, played a role, directly or indirectly, in his party’s defeat.”

Business as usual?

Harsh Pant of Observer Research said the US president retains considerable influence over foreign policy even after a Republican setback. He added that the India-US partnership has historically enjoyed bipartisan support.

“I do not think India will be one of the issues most likely to trigger a clash between the White House and Congress,” Pant told DW.

However, he said the experience of the past two years had reinforced the importance for India of not relying on a single partner.

“The need to diversify partnerships, the need to become self-reliant in certain critical sectors, and the need for alternative supply chains—all these issues remain. The US midterm elections do not really change that calculation,” he said.