CORE Projects Tax Revenue Shortfall for 2026 Up to Rp484 Trillion

The large range reflects the high uncertainty regarding the state’s revenue capacity. Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia projects that tax revenue in 2026 could miss the target by between Rp171 trillion and Rp484 trillion. “This large range reflects the high uncertainty regarding the state’s revenue capacity,” stated Director of Macroeconomic Research at CORE, Akhmad Akbar Susamto, during a public discussion on the Quarterly Economic Review Q1-2026 in Jakarta on Wednesday (29/4). CORE notes that tax revenue performance in the first quarter of 2026 did grow positively, but it is temporary in nature. Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that tax revenue realisation in the first trimester of 2026 reached Rp394.8 trillion, or 16.7 percent of the Rp2,364 trillion target, lower than the achievement for the same period in 2023 at 20.7 percent and 2024 at 18.0 percent. On a monthly basis, net tax grew strongly in January by 30.7 percent and February by 30.1 percent, but slowed sharply to 7.6 percent in March as Ramadan activities subsided. Additionally, the revenue structure is considered not yet strong. Nearly 40 percent of revenue is supported by consumption taxes, namely Value Added Tax (PPN) and Luxury Goods Sales Tax (PPnBM), which grew by 57.7 percent. According to CORE, this condition indicates that revenue growth is more driven by seasonal factors, such as Ramadan and Eid, rather than structural strengthening. “The increase that occurred is more temporary in nature and does not yet reflect expansion of the tax base, improved compliance, or strengthening of economic activity,” said Akbar. CORE estimates that total tax revenue throughout 2026 will only be in the range of Rp1,880 trillion to Rp2,193 trillion, below the government target. To anticipate the potential shortfall, CORE urges the government to accelerate the implementation of the Coretax system and consider expanding windfall tax policies in the energy and mining sectors. Windfall tax is an additional tax imposed on unexpected company profits, for example, due to surges in global commodity prices. According to CORE, surges in commodity prices due to geopolitical escalations could provide additional profits for businesses, which can be utilised as an alternative revenue source.