Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto Says Subsidised Fuel Prices Will Not Rise in March 2026
Indonesia’s government has said there are no plans to raise subsidised fuel prices amid a surge in global oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Airlangga Hartarto said the government is still monitoring the conflict between Iran and the US-led coalition and Israel. Airlangga stressed that the macro assumptions in the 2026 State Budget (APBN 2026) remain the main reference. At present, Indonesia’s crude price, the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), is pegged at US$70 per barrel. ‘Not (to raise subsidised fuel prices). Our APBN assumption yesterday was US$70 per barrel (ICP). So we will wait,’ Airlangga said in Jakarta on Thursday (5/3). The government is currently preparing a number of scenarios to anticipate potential prolonged impacts of the Middle East conflict, which has entered its sixth day. Airlangga noted that the duration of the war is uncertain, necessitating caution. ‘Until when? The war could last three months, six months, or longer. So we are each preparing scenarios,’ he added. This step is intended to ensure domestic energy supply stability without directly burdening purchasing power through increases in subsidised fuel prices.
Energy expert from Padjadjaran University, Yayan Satyakti, predicts global oil prices could rise to US$100 per barrel if the Hormuz Strait is closed. This strategic sea route connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is a major route for a fifth of the world’s oil exports. The tensions escalated after the US and Israel launched ‘Operation Epic Fury’ against strategic facilities in Iran on 28 February 2026. This attack raises concerns about disruptions to global energy supply that could push crude prices up by as much as 50 percent from current levels. Yayan urged the government to promptly recalculate potential increases in the subsidised budget if the ICP stays above US$80 per barrel for an extended period.
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia affirmed that subsidised fuel prices for Pertalite will not rise. Police official, East Jakarta Metro Police Chief Brigadier General Alfian Nurrizal, stated that a suspect in an assault of SPBU employees in Cipinang, East Jakarta, tested positive for methamphetamine and cannabis after a urine test. He cited a random inspection at SPBU KM 13 in Balikpapan Utara, East Kalimantan, where a 10-wheel truck was found filling subsidised diesel with a quota of up to 120 litres per day. Pertamina emphasised that subsidised fuel for fishermen is divided into JBT, JBKP and JBU. Fishermen should understand the differences to ensure access to subsidised fuel targets. Reducing subsidised fuel quotas could affect several sectors.