Comprehensive! Prabowo unveils the 2027 APBN Blueprint

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - President Prabowo Subianto has officially announced the preliminary draft of the State Budget (APBN) for 2027, projecting a lower deficit of around 1.8%-2.4% of GDP. The fiscal posture for next year aims for efficient and productive government spending of 13.62%-14.8% of GDP, while state revenue is targeted at about 11.82%-12.40% of GDP.

‘We will continue to strive to press down and narrow this deficit,’ Prabowo said in a speech at the House of Representatives in Jakarta on Wednesday, 20 May 2026.

In addition to the initial posture, Prabowo also set the rupiah exchange rate at Rp 16,800 - Rp 17,500 per US dollar in 2027. The assumptions in the KEM-PPKF framework will inform the blueprint for the RAPBN 2027.

‘We will keep the exchange rate at Rp 16,800 - Rp 17,500 per US dollar. Fiscal and monetary strategies must be able to keep our exchange rate stable against global currencies,’ he stressed.

Other macro assumptions include inflation of 1.5%-3.5%, Indonesia’s GDP growth of 5.8%-6.5%, 10-year government bond yields of 6.5%-7.3%, oil production of 602,000-615,000 barrels per day, gas production of 934,000-977,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and oil price (ICP) of US$70-95 per barrel.

Separately, he also targets reductions in unemployment and poverty in 2027 under the APBN posture and macro assumptions. Poverty is targeted at 6.0%-6.5%, lower than the 2026 target of 6.5%-7.5%. Unemployment is targeted at 4.3%-4.87%, lower than the 2026 target of 4.44%-4.96%.

‘And this growth must be reflected in real improvements in people’s welfare, therefore poverty is targeted to fall to the 6.0-6.5% range from the previous target of 6.5-7.5%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate should fall to 4.3%-4.87%,’ Prabowo said.

During the event, Prabowo also set targets for the Gini ratio in 2027 at 0.362-0.367, the Human Capital Index at 0.575, the Farmer Welfare Index at 0.8038, and the share of formal sector job creation at 40.81%.