Comparing Stocks, Gold, and the Dollar: How Much is Rp100 Million Worth Now?

The dynamics of the capital market and exchange rates throughout the first half of 2026 have had a significant impact on investor portfolios. The weakening of the Rupiah against the US Dollar has been a primary catalyst, creating a sharp divergence in performance between domestic-based instruments and foreign currency-denominated instruments.

Based on historical data from 2 January 2026 to 8 June 2026, the Rupiah exchange rate depreciated from Rp16,715/US$ to Rp18,120/US$. This condition provided additional capital gains from exchange rates for domestic investors who placed their funds in US Dollar-based assets.

The following is a simulation of Year-to-Date (YTD) investment performance, assuming an initial capital of Rp100,000,000 distributed separately into six different investment instruments (noting that capital gains or interest have not yet been deducted for tax):

1. S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

This US equity instrument recorded a solid dual-engine return. The price of the SPY ETF strengthened from US$ 683.17 on 2 January to US$ 737.55 at the start of June. Assuming the Rp100 million capital was converted to US$ at the beginning of the year to purchase SPY and then converted back to Rupiah at the current rate, the final value surged by nearly 17%.

2. Antam Gold Bars

Gold has once again proven its role as a safe haven amidst currency fluctuations. The base price of Antam gold, which stood at Rp2,504,000/gram at the start of the year, rose to breach Rp2,743,000/gram in early June, providing a net value growth of 9.54%.

3. Foreign Currency Cash (USD)

Simply by exchanging Rupiah for US Dollars at the start of the year at a rate of Rp16,715/US$ and converting it back at the current rate of Rp18,120/US$, investors secured an exchange rate profit of 8.41% without exposure to stock or bond market risks.

4. ST015-T4 Retail Bonds

Indonesian retail bonds were among those positively impacted, given that yields fell in the secondary market, yet retail bonds guarantee the return of the principal investment to the investor at 100% of the purchase price from the primary market. The coupon issued reached 5.45% per annum, so from the beginning of the year to date, the investor’s investment return increased by Rp2.34 million.

5. Conventional Bank Deposits

Using an assumed interest rate of 3.5% per annum (before tax), as this rate is guaranteed by the LPS (Deposit Insurance Corporation), the placement of funds for approximately 157 calendar days provided a proportional return of Rp1.51 million. This instrument remains free from capital price volatility.

6. LQ45 Index

The worst performance was recorded by the domestic blue-chip stock index. The LQ45 Index dropped sharply from 852.00 in early January to the level of 542.89 in early June trading. This caused portfolios fully reliant on LQ45 index stocks to erode by more than 36%.