Colin Powell's visit: Seeking a compromise

C.P.F. Luhulima, Foreign Affairs Analyst, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta

America's unilateralist surge -- from Afghanistan to the "Axis of Evil" -- is not sustainable, militarily or politically. To maintain a global war against terrorism, and to make it genuinely global, the United States has to encourage and support regional counterterrorism strategies. First on its list should be Southeast Asia where the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) framework, although strained by the Asian economic crisis and the incorporation of four new members, still offers a foundation for cooperation between the U.S. and the region.

Colin Powell's visit to Southeast Asia from July 28 to Aug. 3 started in Bangkok on Monday to familiarize himself with counterterrorism strategies of the region to boost regional security and cooperation against terrorism as expressed in ASEAN's Joint Action to Counter Terrorism.

ASEAN leaders in Brunei signed a declaration on joint action to counter terrorism at its seventh summit on Nov. 5 2001. The declaration calls for little more than the exchange of information on terrorist activities. No operational coordination to seek out and hunt down terrorists operating transnationally was discussed. The role of Powell, the Secretary of State, may well be to make use of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting in Brunei to re-emphasize the U.S. second front in its global war against terrorism in Southeast Asia. ASEAN's raison d'etre remains regional stability.

While the ASEAN members declared their sympathy for the U.S. in the wake of Sept. 11, their willingness to become a part of the U.S.-initiated global war on terrorism, however, varied considerably.

The strongest response came from Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who fully backed the U.S. with the offer of Philippine air bases and troops. She also accepted U.S. advisors to assist the Philippine military in its hunt for the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group on the southern island of Basilan. Arroyo undoubtedly hoped that her enthusiastic support would lead to substantial new U.S. military and economic aid. She has not been disappointed. Powell will congratulate the Philippines for its efforts against guerrilla groups.

On Tuesday he flew to Kuala Lumpur and then to Singapore. He will then stay in Bandar Seri Begawan until Thursday. After that he is scheduled to visit Jakarta and Manila.

Powell's visit to Malaysia follows a trip to Washington in May by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, whom President George W. Bush thanked for his strong stand against terrorism. Mahathir and Bush signed a memorandum of understanding to combat terrorism, and officials have discussed the possibility of drafting an extradition treaty, though not soon. Malaysia is a signatory to the U.S.-led anti-terrorism initiatives and is now collaborating with them on other criminal matters.

Powell's visit to Indonesia will seek to reassess President Megawati Soekarnoputri's statement on a visit to the U.S. a week after Sept. 11, denouncing the attacks in the strongest possible terms. On returning home, however, she tempered her remarks by warning that the U.S. war on terrorism did not give one country the right to attack another.

Megawati was repositioning herself to take account of the strong Muslim parties in the legislature and more general Islamic opposition to U.S. attacks on Afghanistan. In early October, she issued a political statement condemning terrorism and stating Indonesia's readiness to cooperate with any UN collective action. The statement avoids endorsing U.S. retaliation against Afghanistan and "calls on all parties to avoid open war."

However, in reaction to efforts by some Islamic radical groups to seek out Americans for expulsion as well as violent anti-U.S. demonstrations, the President insisted that such actions be stopped, warning that "sanctions" will be imposed if they are not. Powell will ask for reassurance on Indonesia's stance on terrorism which, if credibly given, may result in lifting the arms embargo on Indonesia. Powell will also assess whether Indonesia's human rights record has improved enough to permit a resumption of U.S. military aid.

In Brunei, Powell will attend ASEAN's Annual Meeting of Foreign Ministers and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Here Powell is expected to tell other Asian governments to do better in tracking the finances of terrorists.

The 2001 ARF meeting was a springboard for Powell's first official visit to China. In 2002, Washington will shift its focus in the ARF to give greater weight to fighting terrorism in Southeast Asia and the China factor and make both substantive agenda items in the ARF.

Terrorism is not the only apprehension of the Bush government in Southeast Asia. In the conventional military field, their primary concern remains on China's emergence as a major regional power and its claims in the South China Sea.

This emergence over the next 10 to 15 years could intensify U.S.-China's competition in Southeast Asia and "increase the potential for armed conflict." Key aspects of the U.S. strategy in the region thus include "shaping a more favorable security environment through engagement, dialog, reassurance and trust- building" and cultivating "stronger ties with many ASEAN states."