Colin Powell's visit: Seeking a compromise

Colin Powell's visit: Seeking a compromise

C.P.F. Luhulima, Foreign Affairs Analyst, Center for Strategic
and International Studies, Jakarta

America's unilateralist surge -- from Afghanistan to the "Axis
of Evil" -- is not sustainable, militarily or politically. To
maintain a global war against terrorism, and to make it genuinely
global, the United States has to encourage and support regional
counterterrorism strategies. First on its list should be
Southeast Asia where the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) framework, although strained by the Asian economic crisis
and the incorporation of four new members, still offers a
foundation for cooperation between the U.S. and the region.

Colin Powell's visit to Southeast Asia from July 28 to Aug. 3
started in Bangkok on Monday to familiarize himself with
counterterrorism strategies of the region to boost regional
security and cooperation against terrorism as expressed in
ASEAN's Joint Action to Counter Terrorism.

ASEAN leaders in Brunei signed a declaration on joint action
to counter terrorism at its seventh summit on Nov. 5 2001. The
declaration calls for little more than the exchange of
information on terrorist activities. No operational coordination
to seek out and hunt down terrorists operating transnationally
was discussed. The role of Powell, the Secretary of State, may
well be to make use of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting in
Brunei to re-emphasize the U.S. second front in its global war
against terrorism in Southeast Asia. ASEAN's raison d'etre
remains regional stability.

While the ASEAN members declared their sympathy for the U.S.
in the wake of Sept. 11, their willingness to become a part of
the U.S.-initiated global war on terrorism, however, varied
considerably.

The strongest response came from Philippine President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo, who fully backed the U.S. with the offer of
Philippine air bases and troops. She also accepted U.S. advisors
to assist the Philippine military in its hunt for the Abu Sayyaf
terrorist group on the southern island of Basilan. Arroyo
undoubtedly hoped that her enthusiastic support would lead to
substantial new U.S. military and economic aid. She has not been
disappointed. Powell will congratulate the Philippines for its
efforts against guerrilla groups.

On Tuesday he flew to Kuala Lumpur and then to Singapore. He
will then stay in Bandar Seri Begawan until Thursday. After that
he is scheduled to visit Jakarta and Manila.

Powell's visit to Malaysia follows a trip to Washington in May
by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, whom President George W. Bush
thanked for his strong stand against terrorism. Mahathir and Bush
signed a memorandum of understanding to combat terrorism, and
officials have discussed the possibility of drafting an
extradition treaty, though not soon. Malaysia is a signatory to
the U.S.-led anti-terrorism initiatives and is now collaborating
with them on other criminal matters.

Powell's visit to Indonesia will seek to reassess President
Megawati Soekarnoputri's statement on a visit to the U.S. a week
after Sept. 11, denouncing the attacks in the strongest possible
terms. On returning home, however, she tempered her remarks by
warning that the U.S. war on terrorism did not give one country
the right to attack another.

Megawati was repositioning herself to take account of the
strong Muslim parties in the legislature and more general Islamic
opposition to U.S. attacks on Afghanistan. In early October, she
issued a political statement condemning terrorism and stating
Indonesia's readiness to cooperate with any UN collective action.
The statement avoids endorsing U.S. retaliation against
Afghanistan and "calls on all parties to avoid open war."

However, in reaction to efforts by some Islamic radical groups
to seek out Americans for expulsion as well as violent anti-U.S.
demonstrations, the President insisted that such actions be
stopped, warning that "sanctions" will be imposed if they are
not. Powell will ask for reassurance on Indonesia's stance on
terrorism which, if credibly given, may result in lifting the
arms embargo on Indonesia. Powell will also assess whether
Indonesia's human rights record has improved enough to permit a
resumption of U.S. military aid.

In Brunei, Powell will attend ASEAN's Annual Meeting of
Foreign Ministers and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Here Powell
is expected to tell other Asian governments to do better in
tracking the finances of terrorists.

The 2001 ARF meeting was a springboard for Powell's first
official visit to China. In 2002, Washington will shift its focus
in the ARF to give greater weight to fighting terrorism in
Southeast Asia and the China factor and make both substantive
agenda items in the ARF.

Terrorism is not the only apprehension of the Bush government
in Southeast Asia. In the conventional military field, their
primary concern remains on China's emergence as a major regional
power and its claims in the South China Sea.

This emergence over the next 10 to 15 years could intensify
U.S.-China's competition in Southeast Asia and "increase the
potential for armed conflict." Key aspects of the U.S. strategy
in the region thus include "shaping a more favorable security
environment through engagement, dialog, reassurance and trust-
building" and cultivating "stronger ties with many ASEAN states."