Colin Powell and judgment day for President Megawati

Colin Powell and judgment day for President Megawati

Kornelius Purba, Jakarta

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell may well be the only one
among 22 foreign ministers from the Asia-Pacific region and the
European Union, scheduled to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum
(ARF) on Friday in Jakarta, to miss paying a courtesy call on
President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who will face electoral
judgment day on Monday.

When Powell arrived in Jakarta on Thursday, his colleagues,
among them Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and
Australia's Alexander Downer, had met with the President earlier
in the morning, but no schedule was set for her to receive State
Secretary Powell.

Perhaps, however, the absence of such a meeting is good for
both, Powell and Megawati, because such an encounter --
especially when cameras portray them smiling broadly -- could
create the misperception that the U.S. is supporting Megawati in
Indonesia's first direct presidential election on Monday. For
Megawati, shaking hands with Powell could also backfire, because
amid the current strong anti-U.S. sentiment prevailing here,
voters would have all the more reason not to vote for her.

The fact is that in private talks with Indonesian journalists
in Jakarta lately, the most popular topic raised by many foreign
diplomats was not how tenacious foreign minister Hassan Wirayuda
would be in promoting his ASEAN Security Community (ASC) plan,
but the possibility of "Madame Megawati defeating the generals"
on July 5.

No doubt, minister Hassan, as the country's chief diplomat,
has worked hard and astutely to regain international recognition
and respect from neighboring countries for Indonesia's leadership
in the regional grouping. To be fair, Indonesia is now firmly on
the right track to restoring its standing as the world's largest
and yet moderate Muslim nation, despite the slow and difficult
process. It cannot be denied that the achievements that have been
scored over the past few years by the Megawati administration in
fighting terrorism are highly appreciated by the international
community.

Given the fact that Indonesia is ranked by Transparency
International as the world's third most corrupt nation and
foreign investors continue to shun the country, it is unrealistic
to expect that the foreign ministry can do more to counter the
many misperceptions about Indonesia. To quote one senior
Indonesian diplomat: "No matter how ingenious our diplomats are,
as long as the domestic situation remains in chaos, they cannot
do much to convince the international community that our country
is a very safe place to live."

Observers have noted that foreign minister Hassan often could
not hide his impatience on seeing the lack of enthusiasm among
his ASEAN colleagues toward his proposal that the regional
grouping take on the task of preventing and combating security
disturbances in the region. Indeed, in the eyes of many foreign
diplomats Indonesia has become itself a destabilizing factor in
the region.

When Indonesia preaches about the need for its neighbors to
democratize their system of government, countries such as
Singapore may reply, "You cannot feed your people with freedom,
but only with bread. "Myanmar's junta might reply, "We learned
about the effectiveness of iron-fisted rule from His Excellency
General Soeharto. It works. People can eat more now after we
emulated him."

What Indonesians immediately need are more jobs, less crime,
fewer bribes to pay for public services, and at least a bit of
progress in law enforcement. Voters are not interested in the
creation of a European Union-style Asian Community in 2020. After
all, many Indonesians are workers who lost their jobs because
Taiwanese or Japanese companies closed their factories in this
country.

What, then, do Indonesians expect most from their country's
diplomats? They hope that Indonesian embassies overseas will be
able to find more effective ways to help abused Indonesian
migrant workers abroad. Many workers still perceive that those
embassies view their presence more as a disturbance to their
diplomatic activities, rather than as foreign exchange earners
for their country.

Megawati, as well as her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid,
believes that the most effective way to lure back foreign
investors is by traveling the globe as frequently as possible,
rather than restoring order at home. It is hard to deny that
Soeharto's government was one of the most important factors
behind ASEAN's growth into a solid and internationally recognized
organization. Under Soeharto, Indonesia, with its stability and
high economic growth figures had become an effective umbrella for
its smaller neighboring countries. The collapse of his government
in 1998 was immediately followed by the weakening of ASEAN.

Indonesia's neighbors will therefore anxiously wait for the
results of Monday's presidential election, because a better
Indonesia will be crucial for them as they face the future
challenges of the region. That, however, does not mean that they
are entirely dependent on this country. They have proved in the
last six years that they are able to readjust themselves to the
fact that Indonesia, to a certain extent, has become a liability
for them and the region.

Indonesia's ability to elect a new leader through peaceful and
democratic elections will be the first step toward achieving a
better Indonesia. However, it would be wise to remember that a
democratically elected president is no guarantee that he or she
will be capable of improving conditions in Indonesia in the next
five years. The coming few days will show whether the Indonesian
electorate is capable of picking a new leader with good judgment
and wisdom.

Kornelius Purba (purba@thejakartapost.com) is staff writer of
The Jakarta Post