Colin Powell and judgment day for President Megawati

Kornelius Purba, Jakarta

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell may well be the only one among 22 foreign ministers from the Asia-Pacific region and the European Union, scheduled to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) on Friday in Jakarta, to miss paying a courtesy call on President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who will face electoral judgment day on Monday.

When Powell arrived in Jakarta on Thursday, his colleagues, among them Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi and Australia's Alexander Downer, had met with the President earlier in the morning, but no schedule was set for her to receive State Secretary Powell.

Perhaps, however, the absence of such a meeting is good for both, Powell and Megawati, because such an encounter -- especially when cameras portray them smiling broadly -- could create the misperception that the U.S. is supporting Megawati in Indonesia's first direct presidential election on Monday. For Megawati, shaking hands with Powell could also backfire, because amid the current strong anti-U.S. sentiment prevailing here, voters would have all the more reason not to vote for her.

The fact is that in private talks with Indonesian journalists in Jakarta lately, the most popular topic raised by many foreign diplomats was not how tenacious foreign minister Hassan Wirayuda would be in promoting his ASEAN Security Community (ASC) plan, but the possibility of "Madame Megawati defeating the generals" on July 5.

No doubt, minister Hassan, as the country's chief diplomat, has worked hard and astutely to regain international recognition and respect from neighboring countries for Indonesia's leadership in the regional grouping. To be fair, Indonesia is now firmly on the right track to restoring its standing as the world's largest and yet moderate Muslim nation, despite the slow and difficult process. It cannot be denied that the achievements that have been scored over the past few years by the Megawati administration in fighting terrorism are highly appreciated by the international community.

Given the fact that Indonesia is ranked by Transparency International as the world's third most corrupt nation and foreign investors continue to shun the country, it is unrealistic to expect that the foreign ministry can do more to counter the many misperceptions about Indonesia. To quote one senior Indonesian diplomat: "No matter how ingenious our diplomats are, as long as the domestic situation remains in chaos, they cannot do much to convince the international community that our country is a very safe place to live."

Observers have noted that foreign minister Hassan often could not hide his impatience on seeing the lack of enthusiasm among his ASEAN colleagues toward his proposal that the regional grouping take on the task of preventing and combating security disturbances in the region. Indeed, in the eyes of many foreign diplomats Indonesia has become itself a destabilizing factor in the region.

When Indonesia preaches about the need for its neighbors to democratize their system of government, countries such as Singapore may reply, "You cannot feed your people with freedom, but only with bread. "Myanmar's junta might reply, "We learned about the effectiveness of iron-fisted rule from His Excellency General Soeharto. It works. People can eat more now after we emulated him."

What Indonesians immediately need are more jobs, less crime, fewer bribes to pay for public services, and at least a bit of progress in law enforcement. Voters are not interested in the creation of a European Union-style Asian Community in 2020. After all, many Indonesians are workers who lost their jobs because Taiwanese or Japanese companies closed their factories in this country.

What, then, do Indonesians expect most from their country's diplomats? They hope that Indonesian embassies overseas will be able to find more effective ways to help abused Indonesian migrant workers abroad. Many workers still perceive that those embassies view their presence more as a disturbance to their diplomatic activities, rather than as foreign exchange earners for their country.

Megawati, as well as her predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid, believes that the most effective way to lure back foreign investors is by traveling the globe as frequently as possible, rather than restoring order at home. It is hard to deny that Soeharto's government was one of the most important factors behind ASEAN's growth into a solid and internationally recognized organization. Under Soeharto, Indonesia, with its stability and high economic growth figures had become an effective umbrella for its smaller neighboring countries. The collapse of his government in 1998 was immediately followed by the weakening of ASEAN.

Indonesia's neighbors will therefore anxiously wait for the results of Monday's presidential election, because a better Indonesia will be crucial for them as they face the future challenges of the region. That, however, does not mean that they are entirely dependent on this country. They have proved in the last six years that they are able to readjust themselves to the fact that Indonesia, to a certain extent, has become a liability for them and the region.

Indonesia's ability to elect a new leader through peaceful and democratic elections will be the first step toward achieving a better Indonesia. However, it would be wise to remember that a democratically elected president is no guarantee that he or she will be capable of improving conditions in Indonesia in the next five years. The coming few days will show whether the Indonesian electorate is capable of picking a new leader with good judgment and wisdom.

Kornelius Purba (purba@thejakartapost.com) is staff writer of The Jakarta Post