'Coercive diplomacy' favors India

'Coercive diplomacy' favors India

Anuradha Nagaraj, Deutche Presse-Agentur, New Delhi

Over the years, most countries had stopped listening. But then
suddenly, after the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United
States, India's voice became audible again, and this time the
entire globe was listening.

Taking advantage of the international coalition against
terrorism, India embarked on a diplomatic tightrope walk,
garnering support for its own fight against what it calls
terrorism in Indian-controlled areas of divided Kashmir.

"Delhi is attracted by the possibility that a formal Indo-U.S.
alliance would mean the final burying of the Kashmir issue, to
India's advantage," India Today reported in January, quoting
analysts.

For a decade, despite provocations, India had not extended its
counterinsurgency operations onto Pakistani soil. But in the
corridors of power in New Delhi after Sept. 11, a whole new range
of possibilities to deal with terrorism in Kashmir were
discussed, including an all-out war with Pakistan.

India has always accused neighboring Pakistan of "funding and
supporting" terrorist groups. It has also alleged that its fellow
nuclear power was running terrorist training camps.
For its part, Pakistan has said it only gives moral support to
the "freedom fighters" in Kashmir and has repeatedly denied
Indian accusations.

Despite allegations and counter-allegations, India never
crossed the ceasefire line of control, which divides the disputed
region of Kashmir, to raid terrorist camps it believed were
Pakistan-based.

But such a limited Indian attack on Pakistani territory became
a real threat as India coped with the rapidly unfolding events
after Sept. 11.

For India, it began with a terrorist attack on the Indian
parliament on Dec. 13. That machine-gun and grenade attack gave
India the opportunity to launch a new strategy in its war against
terrorism as it drew immediate parallels between it and the Sept.
11 attacks in New York and Washington.

Terrorists had struck at the symbol of Indian democracy, and
in a television address, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari
Vajpayee said the "battle against terrorism has reached its last
phase" and India would "fight a decisive battle to the end".
What followed brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war -
twice.

Even before the Indian army marched to the border and was told
to be prepared for a final battle, analysts had predicted that
India would use the "Bush ploy" with Pakistan.

India did. It told Pakistan in no uncertain terms that "cross-
border" terrorism would have to end. The move was similar to the
American president's warnings to Afghanistan's former ruling
Taliban regime to hand over al-Qaeda terrorists: "Either you
bring them to justice, or justice will be brought to them."

And all through December, as the troop build-up along the
Indian- Pakistan border continued, the world waited for "India's
version of America's Operation Enduring Freedom". The moment
passed, but tensions continued to simmer.

India's "coercive diplomacy" kept up the pressure, and many
observers hailed it as a success.

Experts said India's biggest gain was Pakistani President
Pervez Musharraf's crackdown on terrorist camps and his assurance
to the world that there would be no infiltration across the line
of control. India also managed to persuade the world to ban some
of the main terrorist groups operating in Kashmir. However,
things flared up again in May after an attack on an Indian army
camp in Kashmir, in which 32 people, mainly women and children,
were killed.

Indian leaders continued to talk tough, firmly ruling out a
withdrawal of troops from the border and rejecting offers for
talks from Pakistan until infiltration permanently ended.
As the standoff threatened to erupt into war again, foreign
diplomats, mainly American and British, frequently visited the
two countries to try to defuse the tension.

While India stuck to its stand on Pakistan, new ties were
forged on military cooperation with the United States. The latest
stand-off between India and Pakistan is now eight months old, and
state assembly elections in Indian-controlled Kashmir in
September are seen as a possible turning point in the region.

But India's aggressive posture has slackened a bit under
international pressure to reduce tension with its nuclear
neighbor, and at present, the Indian government is happy to just
keep the war of words going.